Weekly Market Recap – September 21st, 2018
In the Markets
The months of promised tariffs against China materialized into reality on Tuesday, as the United States put in place a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, with a raise to 25% in four months if China does not sit down at the negotiating table. Beijing has announced plans to retaliate with 5-10% tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. goods, to which President Trump has threatened an additional $267 billion worth of tariffs.
Despite the trade news, equity markets responded positively on Tuesday, continuing through the week as the Dow Jones closed up 2.3%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.8%. Chinese large-cap stocks posted gains on the week as well. The NASDAQ, however, fell 0.3% on the week.
U.S. Dollar Index December futures fell 0.75%, as platinum and silver reacted inversely, climbing 3.88% and 1.53% respectively. Palladium gained for the week, rising 7.67%, while gold futures performed sluggishly, rising only 0.02%.
WTI Crude and Brent Crude both rose this week, with WTI futures rising 2.95% to break $70/bbl, while Brent futures climbed 0.82%. Gasoline rose 2.05% and heating oil rose 0.83%, but natural gas was the top performer in energy, gaining 7.59% on the week.
Soybeans and grains all rose, with corn rising 1.56%, wheat climbing 2%, and soybeans increasing 2.02%.
Copper was another top performer on the week, gaining 7.99% on the week, driven by its largest one-day gain since 2013 on Friday.
World Cup Trading Championships
Jan Smolen remained in first place for the 86th straight trading day, breaking the 200% net return mark as he finished at 200.2%, up over 22% on the week. Paul Skarp held onto second place finishing the week at 107.5%, but hot on his heels was Petra Ilona Zacek, who gained 50% on the week to finish in 3rd place with a net return of 107.3%, bumping Kurt Sakaeda down to 4th.
Sakaeda posted a strong week, finishing at 90.6%. 5th place was retaken by Graeme Adams midweek, who ended with a net return of 56.9%.
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Weekly Market Recap – September 14th, 2018
In the Markets
Despite recent tensions regarding tariffs, the major indices rebounded last week as the U.S. and China have agreed to a new round of trade negotiations. On this news, as well as strong performance from the tech sector, the Dow Jones rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, and the NASDAQ increased by 1.4%.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August were both released this week, showing weaker inflation, quelling fears that the Fed would increase interest rates at a more aggressive rate. The Fed is still expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at the end of September. The European Central Bank, and the Bank of England both kept their interest rates unchanged at policy meetings last week, while the Turkish central bank increased its rates to 24% in an attempt to stabilize the Lira.
The inverse movement that began the week prior between WTI and Brent crude futures continued, but flipped, as WTI Crude rose 1.83% through the 14th, and Brent crude fell 2.35%. Gasoline futures finished almost even on the week, only moving up 0.01%, as hurricane Florence hit the Carolina coast. Heating oil futures dropped 0.41% on the week.
The USDA released the September WASDE report, as corn dropped sharply 4.16%, and soybeans fell 1.6%. CBOT wheat stopped its steep slide down, moving up 0.05%.
USD index futures fell 0.46%, sending gold up slightly, by 0.06%. Platinum rose more sharply, up 2.33%, while silver fell 0.2%.
World Cup Trading Championships
Jan Smolen climbed sharply on the week, up almost 25% to a net return of 178%, his highest total return since June 26th. Paul Skarp managed to hold onto second place again, finishing the week at 105.4%. Kurt Sakaeda made a strong push for second, up 10% on the week through Thursday, before finishing in third at 86.5%.
Petra Ilona Zacek returned to the top 5, and held onto 4th place for the entire week finishing at 57.8%. Graeme Adams had a blip on Wednesday, before being overtaken again by Adrian Koemel, who held 5th place for 4 out of 5 trading days, closing at 51.5%.
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Weekly Market Recap – September 7th, 2018
In the Markets
The effects of low level negotiations between Chinese and U.S. officials became apparent as the Trump administration announced intentions to place tariffs on all Chinese goods imported into the United States. Two of the big three indices reacted strongly as the S&P 500 dropped 1%, and the NASDAQ plummeted 2.6% on the back of tech selloffs. The Dow Jones made it through the week only falling 0.2%.
The employment report showed 201,000 jobs added in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.9%. Wages, which have continually shown slow growth despite a tight jobs market, rose $0.10 in August. With further Fed rate hikes on the horizon, the USD strengthened on the week, sending precious metals down, with gold, platinum, and silver dropping 0.52%, 0.85%, and 2.66% respectively.
The two highest volume crude oil contracts went in separate directions this week, as WTI futures dropped 2.94%, but Brent futures rose 2.93%. With the long weekend marking the end of summer traveling, gasoline futures dropped 1.35%. Heating oil fell 1.11%. Soybeans held flat, only moving up 0.06%, while corn rose 0.55%. CBOT wheat made a dramatic move, falling 6.28% on grim export prospects. The biggest moves in soft commodities were shown by sugar’s 3.87% rise, and cocoa’s 3.3% fall.
World Cup Trading Championships
The top 3 continued their reign, as once again the week ended with Jan Smolen on top, followed by Paul Skarp and Kurt Sakaeda. The top two both climbed over 12%, with Smolen finishing at 154.6% and Skarp closing at 129%. Kurt Sakaeda, who has held onto 3rd place for 16 straight trading days, finished the week at 81.3%.
The rest of the leaderboard began in the hands of Graeme Adams in 4th and Adrian Koemel in 5th place. Petra Ilona Zacek temporarily regained a foothold in 5th place on Wednesday’s close, until Koemel vaulted back into 4th place by weeks end with a net return of 51.5%. Koemel was joined by Ryan Alderson, who made his first top 5 posting with a return of 43.4%.
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Weekly Market Recap – August 31st, 2018
In the Markets
On Monday the U.S. and Mexico reached a bilateral trade deal as former NAFTA members have turned to separate trade discussions. Similar negotiations between the U.S. and Canada did not reach an agreement by weeks end, but plan on resuming talks in September. The trade news sent U.S. equities climbing higher, with the S&P 500 returning to all-time-high territory, up 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.7%. The NASDAQ was the best performer of the big three indices, posting a 2.1% gain.
Oil continued its increase from last week, with WTI futures climbing 1.57% through the last week of August, and Brent rising 2.08%. Precious metals, however, fell on the week, with gold down 0.54%, silver down 2.27%, and platinum down 0.29%.
Copper fell 1.37% on the week, and soybeans fell another 1.37%. Grains rebounded last week’s steep drop, with corn climbing 0.62% and wheat gaining 1.96%.
As the summer winds down, commodities markets will continue to eye the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, as the U.S. will look to move forward on the planned tariffs on $200 billion worth of exports.
World Cup Trading Championships
The top three showed little movement last week, as Jan Smolen remained in first place with a net return of 142.3%, followed by Paul Skarp at 116.5%, and Kurt Sakaeda at 89.1%. All three traders climbed to start the week, before falling slightly going into the three day weekend.
The final two spots shuffled between Fabian Fischer, Petra Ilona Zacek, and Graeme Adams, all remaining within 5% of one another. Fischer ended on top with a net return of 55.5%, followed by Adams at 51.6%.
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Weekly Market Recap – August 24th, 2018
In the Markets
In a week light with commodities news, the USD strengthened through the 15th before dropping off to end the week, with dollar index futures falling 0.96% on the week. Low level trade discussions between U.S. and Chinese officials were uneventful, leaving the world to wait for future meetings between leaders of the two economic superpowers.
Oil posted a strong rally this week, with WTI and Brent Crude futures both exceeding 5% increases on the week. Gasoline and heating oil both also increased, up 4.84% and 4.99% respectively, while natural gas fell 0.98%.
Despite a strong dollar and further fed rate hikes on the horizon, precious metals saw gains this week, with gold leading the charge up 2.46% as December futures break the $1,200/oz. level.
Soybeans and Corn both fell 4.2% on the week, while wheat plummeted on technical selling and weak export demand, falling 8.16%.
Race for the Bull & Bear
The top three remained the same throughout the week, as Jan Smolen, Paul Skarp, and Kurt Sakaeda maintained the same positions from the 17th. Jan Smolen posted a 15% rally, reaching an August net return high of 145.9%. Paul Skarp finished in second behind Smolen with a net return of 118.3%, while Kurt Sakaeda finished in 3rd up 6% to 94.5%.
The final two spots were once again very contentious. The week began with Carlos Eisenberg in 4th, and Adrian Koemel in 5th, but that changed on Thursday when Petra Ilona Zacek took 4th followed by Graeme Adams in 5th. Graeme’s stint was short lived, as Fabien Fischer made his return to the top 5 by ending the week with a net return of 54.8%, while Petra held onto 4th place with her net return of 65.1%, rallying 15% in one day.
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Weekly Market Recap – August 10th, 2018
In the Markets
The Turkish lira plunged last week amidst rising inflation and tensions driven by rising global interest rates. The lira fell to record lows as the nation sits on the precipice of financial crisis. The lira freefall led to ripple effects across a variety of markets, including the euro, which neared a year low verses the USD.
Inversely, the USD continued to show strength this week. Dollar Index futures approached highs since June 2017 as contracts broke consensus technical resistance as it breached the 96 level. The USD may maintain this strength as interest rates are projected to continue to rise, and the euro faces further weakness as the Turkish lira fallout continues to unfold.
U.S. equity markets showed diverse reactions, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, while the NASDAQ climbed 0.3% and the Russell 2000 rose 0.8%.
Oil futures continued their downward trend, as Brent Crude fell 0.56%, and WTI Crude futures reached $67.3/bbl, down 1.26% on the week.
The August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were published this week by the USDA, revealing bearish indicators for grains due to ample production and trade issues surrounding markets. Soybeans, corn, and wheat all fell in response to the news, down 4.49%, 3.25%, and 1.17% respectively.
Race for the Bear & Bull
Jan Smolen continued to hold the top spot this week, climbing 12% on the week to finish with a net return of 141% on the year. Paul Skarp, who had sat in 4th place since July 20th, reclaimed 2nd to close last week, ending with a net return of 91% on August 10th. Third and fourth place were held by Kurt Sakaeda and Carlos Eisenberg, with the two separated by just over 1%, with Sakaeda at 90.8%, and Eisenberg at 89.3%.
The week began with the top 5 rounded out by Fabien Fischer, but 5th place was clinched by a newcomer to the leaderboard to close the week, as Adrian Koemel joined the WCTC leaders for the first time this year, closing the week with a net return of 51.5%.
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Weekly Market Recap – August 17th, 2018
In the Markets
After a breakdown in discussions two months ago shifting the focus to retaliatory tariffs, U.S. and China trade negotiations reopened last week. Reported meetings between low-level officials are setting up a scheduled meeting between President Trump and President Xi in November. Additionally, after inducing panic surrounding the possibility of a financial crisis, the Turkish Lira rebounded, climbing back 6.1% on the week after sliding to a new all-time low against the dollar on Monday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 1.4% on this batch of news, while the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the tech heavy NASDAQ dropped 0.3%.
The Escondida copper mine in Chile avoided a strike as union representatives signed a contract on Friday. With the world’s largest copper mine avoiding paralysis, copper futures prices plummeted 4.14% as the globe avoids potential supply shortage.
Crude oil dropped this week, with WTI falling 2.76% and Brent futures down 1.47%. Gasoline and heating oil futures also both dropped on the week, down 2.27% and 2.15% respectively.
Grains rallied this week, with wheat climbing 2.51%, and corn rising 1.88%. Soybeans posted a similar performance, rising 3.6%. Precious metals, on the other hand, all faced a bearish week, with gold falling 2.85%, silver dropping 4.34%, and platinum falling sharply 6.3%.
Race for the Bear & Bull
Paul Skarp continued his rebound back into the top of the leaderboard, completing his rally by returning to first place on Wednesday for the first time since May 21st. After conceding first place for the 15th and 16th, Jan Smolen took back the top spot to close the week, ending Friday at 129%. Paul Skarp maintained his rally, however, finishing the week in second place at a net return of 127.5%, only 1.5% behind Smolen.
Kurt Sakaeda finished in 3rd at 88.4%, followed by Carlos Eisenberg in 4th at 56.3%, with the top 5 rounded out by Michael Cook with a net return of 45.9%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – August 10th, 2018
In the Markets
The Turkish lira plunged last week amidst rising inflation and tensions driven by rising global interest rates. The lira fell to record lows as the nation sits on the precipice of financial crisis. The lira freefall led to ripple effects across a variety of markets, including the euro, which neared a year low verses the USD.
Inversely, the USD continued to show strength this week. Dollar Index futures approached highs since June 2017 as contracts broke consensus technical resistance as it breached the 96 level. The USD may maintain this strength as interest rates are projected to continue to rise, and the euro faces further weakness as the Turkish lira fallout continues to unfold.
U.S. equity markets showed diverse reactions, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, while the NASDAQ climbed 0.3% and the Russell 2000 rose 0.8%.
Oil futures continued their downward trend, as Brent Crude fell 0.56%, and WTI Crude futures reached $67.3/bbl, down 1.26% on the week.
The August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were published this week by the USDA, revealing bearish indicators for grains due to ample production and trade issues surrounding markets. Soybeans, corn, and wheat all fell in response to the news, down 4.49%, 3.25%, and 1.17% respectively.
Race for the Bear & Bull
Jan Smolen continued to hold the top spot this week, climbing 12% on the week to finish with a net return of 141% on the year. Paul Skarp, who had sat in 4th place since July 20th, reclaimed 2nd to close last week, ending with a net return of 91% on August 10th. Third and fourth place were held by Kurt Sakaeda and Carlos Eisenberg, with the two separated by just over 1%, with Sakaeda at 90.8%, and Eisenberg at 89.3%.
The week began with the top 5 rounded out by Fabien Fischer, but 5th place was clinched by a newcomer to the leaderboard to close the week, as Adrian Koemel joined the WCTC leaders for the first time this year, closing the week with a net return of 51.5%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – August 3rd, 2018
In the Markets
Interest rates remained unchanged following the Fed’s Wednesday meeting, although the central bank did change its description of the economy from solid to strong, possibly pointing to two additional rate hikes this year. The USD strengthened on the news, climbing 0.53% up to 94.961 on September futures. Gold continued its downward trend, reacting inversely to the strong USD, falling 0.76%.
The U.S. July employment report was published this week, revealing a gain of 157,000 jobs in July, pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.9%. While the increase in non-farm payroll positions was less than expected, June’s report was revised upward to 248,000 from 213,000. Wages, which have shown sluggish growth despite a tight labor market, increased 0.3%.
Copper dropped 1.37%, despite recent Union negotiations bringing Chile’s Escondida mine workers closer to a strike.
Crude oil fell, with WTI futures falling 0.29%, and Brent futures dropping at a much steeper rate, down 1.94%. Trade tension escalations between the U.S. and China sent China’s Shanghai Composite falling 4.6%, while U.S. markets remained resilient, as the Dow Jones finished even, the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, and the NASDAQ climbed a single percentage point. Grains also responded in a bullish fashion this week, with soybeans rising 1.92%, corn climbing 2.13%, and wheat roaring higher, up 4.85%.
Smolen Rallies, Holding Off Challengers
Carlos Eisenberg started the week by taking over first place to close on Monday, rallying to 119%. His stint on top was short lived, as Jan Smolen gained 20% on the week to finish back in first place with a net return of 129.5%. Eisenberg finished in second with a net return of 114.6%, followed by Kurt Sakaeda in third with a return of 98.2%. Paul Skarp remained in fourth with a net return of 81.4%. The final spot on the leaderboard shuffled between three traders this week, as Michael Cook and Takumaru Sakakibara battled for a position in the top 5. It was Fabian Fischer, however, who ended the week in fifth place with a net return of 46.7%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – July 27th, 2018
In the Markets
The U.S. GDP posted a 4.1% growth in the second quarter, the strongest performance since 2014. While this increase could be attributed to foreign companies buying U.S. goods before potential tariffs are put in place, domestic contributors to GDP also posted gains; consumer spending rose 4%, while business investment has risen 9.4% over the first two quarters.
Tariff tensions between the U.S. and Europe eased as negotiations resulted in a halt of additional retaliatory tariffs, as well unspecified plans for an increase American soybeans and natural gas sales to the EU. In response, both commodity futures posted strong gains, with November soybean futures rising 2.37%, and September natural gas climbing 1.79%. Corn and wheat also performed positively, raising 1.96% and 2.81% respectively.
Iran remains crucial to global oil prices, putting the U.S’s relationship at the center of crude markets. Not only is Iran a dominate oil producer, but they also hold the Strait of Hormuz which separates the Persian Gulf from the Gulf of Oman, which 20% of global crude oil passes through every day. WTI crude futures showed limited response, only gaining 0.63%, while Brent crude futures rose 1.66% on the week.
Gold fell 0.66%, and silver dropped 0.36%, while the Dollar Index acted inversely, climbing 0.25% on the week.
The Dow Jones rallied 1.6% this week on the back of the strong GDP results and easing trade tensions, while the S&P 500 rose 0.6%. The NASDAQ did not fare as well as the other indices, falling 1.1% on the week.
The Spread Narrows
Only 6.5% separated first from third at the close of last week’s trading: Jan Smolen maintained his hold on first place, closing the week at 109.4%, but right on his heals was Carlos Eisenberg, who finished the week at 106.2%. In third place is, within striking distance of first with a year to date net return of 103% was Kurt Sakaeda.
Paul Skarp finished up 3% from last week to close at 83.7%, enough to remain in 4th place. The top 5 was again rounded out by Takumaru Sakakibara with a net return of 42.4%.
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Weekly Market Recap – July 20th, 2018
In the Markets
Grains rebounded from last week’s steep drop off, as soybeans recovered 3.66%, corn climbed 4.02%, and wheat rose 3.82%. Oil fell again, with WTI futures down 1.83%, and Brent Crude futures falling 2.81%.
Precious metals fell this week, with gold down 0.81% and silver down 1.68%. Platinum had a better week, but still dropped 0.1%. In a rare joint movement, the dollar index also fell on the week down 0.29%.
The major stock indices showed little net movement this last week. The Dow Jones showed the best performance, up 0.2%, the S&P 500 finished flat on the week, while the NASDAQ fell 0.1%. The Russell 2000 outperformed all three, gaining 0.6%.
Sakaeda Challenges for First, Smolen Finishes Ahead
On Thursday Kurt Sakaeda finally finished atop the leaderboard, vaulting himself above Jan Smolen, becoming the first trader outside of Smolen and Skarp to claim the top spot this year. Smolen rallied on Friday, however, reclaiming first place and finishing the week with a net return of 131.95%. Kurt Sakaeda finished in second with a net return of 116.43, while Carlos Eisenberg rallied to break into the top 3 for the first time this year, breaking the 100% mark for the first time this year, closing at 101.81%. Paul Skarp finished in fourth at 80.7%, and Takumaru Sakakibara rounded out the top 5 again with a net return of 43.62%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – July 13th, 2018
In the News
Last week NATO leaders met in Brussels, focusing on member nations’ commitments to increased military spending. Tensions were high going into the summit, as President Trump had questioned the usefulness of the alliance, but that sentiment shifted following the summit, with President Trump maintaining belief in NATO. Central to discussions was the failure of some member nations to reach the 2% GDP target for collective military spending contributions, with Trump pushing not only for each ally nation to meet the financing target, but to do so at a rapid pace.
Following the NATO summit, President Trump travelled to England to meet with British Prime Minister Theresa May. On Friday the two discussed U.K.-U.S. relations in a post Brexit world, including a bilateral trade agreement between the two nations. Trump also clarified alleged criticisms he had made of May’s handling of Brexit, and showed support for anti-immigration stances that were strong fuel for Britain leaving the EU.
In the Markets
Grains suffered heavy losses this week in the wake of the WASDE report as the markets await further developments between the U.S. and China. Soybeans plummeted 6.74%, while corn fell 4.89%, and wheat dropped 3.54%.
Precious metals also posted losses, with gold falling 1.16%, silver down 1.58%, and platinum dipping to 2.16%. Commodities faced losses across the board, with oil also correcting lower in both WTI and Crude futures, which dropped 3.78% and 2.52% respectively.
While commodities showed weakness, the major indexes showed gains as trade fears took a back seat in the minds of equities investors. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the NASDAQ climbed 1.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the strongest performance, climbing over 500 points, up 2.3% and breaking the 25,000 mark.
Decorated WCTC Champion Climbs to Second
Three time WCTC champion Kurt Sakaeda has hovered around the top 5 all year, including a current 21 day streak on the leaderboard, but last week he soared to a new year high, breaking into second place. Sakaeda rallied over 20% to finish with a net return of 120% on the year, only 28% behind the leader Jan Smolen, the closest spread since Smolen took over first place on May 21st. Smolen still held onto first place, with a net return of 148%, and Paul Skarp finished in third with a net return of 103.8%.
Spread Narrows with Eisenberg’s Rally
Carlos Eisenberg posted a stunning week, finishing with a net return of 92.5%, gaining 35% from the prior week. This puts the spread between fourth and first place barely above 50%, marking for an incredibly tight race moving forward.
Takumaru Sakakibara rounded out the top 5 again, finishing with a net return of 43.6%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – July 6th, 2018
In the News
On July 6th, the Trump administration’s first round of tariffs against China went into effect. These tariffs, effecting around $50 billion worth of Chinese exports, were issued to combat China’s allegedly unfair trade practices, including forced transfer of American technology and intellectual property. The tariffs cover 1,102 different products, targeting China’s “Made in China 2025” industrial policy. China’s retaliatory tariffs are still on the horizon, which could put pressure on the U.S. to increase their trade actions, as tensions increase between the U.S. and China.
Good news for U.S. markets arrived from the BLS June 2018 job report. 213,000 jobs were added in June, exceeding the 195,000 expected. Despite a positive month, unemployment rose to 4.0%, signifying more workers entering the job market, which bodes well for employee sentiment, as companies continue to fill positions. Wage growth remained slow, quelling concerns regarding increased interest rate hikes as inflation remains low. May and April both had job growth numbers revised up, showing a net gain of 37,000 from what was previously reported.
In the Markets
Volatility ticked up last week as trade tensions and employment reports brought varying news. The dollar weakened, with the dollar index falling 0.61% on September futures. Gold dropped to a new low before rallying to end the week, with net change up 0.1%. Silver fell 0.8% on the week, and platinum was down 1.06%.
WTI Crude oil rallied to start the week, with August futures climbing above $75/bbl, before falling to close the week, posting a loss of 0.47%. Brent Crude dropped 2.62% on the week, as the market awaits Saudi production decisions, with the slowdown of Iranian Oil usage approaching.
Soybeans rallied this week after several weeks of losses, rising 1.65% on the week.
Top 3 Hold on; Rest of Field Shuffles for Position
The top three ended the week the same way they began; Jan Smolen held first place, gaining 3.5% on the week finishing with a net return of 164.8%. Paul Skarp took the July 4th holiday week off, retaining second place with his net return of 103.84% from last week. Kurt Sakaeda maintained third place, climbing to 88% on Thursday, before finishing the week with a net gain of almost 3% from last week, closing at 75.45%.
The last two spots on the top 5 shuffled between Takumaru Sakakibara, Petra Illona Zecek, and Carlos Eisenberg. Carlos came out on top in those three, finishing in 4th place with a net return of 57.82%. Takumaru was bumped out of the top 5 for July 3rd-5th, but regained 5th place to end the week, closing with a net return of 43.71%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – June 29th, 2018
In the News
The Trump Administration announced plans to levy powerful sanctions against companies who do not entirely cut Iranian Crude Oil imports by November. This considerably shortened the previous timetable, which required companies to cut 20% of their imports every 180 days. Now these companies must cut 100% of their Iranian imports in 180 days, with the cut off point set at November 4th.
Trade tensions between China and the U.S. spiked to start the week, as reports from the White House seemed to hint at barring Chinese companies from investing in U.S. tech firms. The task has been currently delegated to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, temporarily quelling tensions as the two superpowers continue to seek leverage against one another.
In the Markets
Crude Oil rallied this week, gaining back the ground it lost over the last few weeks, soaring to a high since November 2014. WTI Crude August Futures climbed by 8.12% to 74.15/bbl, while Brent climbed 5.06%. As companies begin to cut their reliance on Iranian Oil, the markets will continue to monitor the effects on global supplies.
Precious metals fell again this week, as gold dropped 1.27% to a new low for 2018 of $1246.90. Silver also fell 1.98%, while platinum fell 2.49%.
Soybeans dropped 4.14% as the U.S. continues its stand-off against global trade partners.
The U.S. Dollar rebounded slightly, rising 0.18%, but the major U.S. indices all fell on the week. The Dow Jones dropped 1.5%, the S&P 500 fell 1.4%, and the NASDAQ was down 2.4%.
Smolen Rallies, Extending Lead
Kurt Sakaeda, three time WCTC Champion, maintained a third place in a tumultuous week in the markets. Jan Smolen held onto first, falling to 161.32%, and Paul Skarp remained in second place at 103.84%. Sakaeda closed the gap between himself and first to under 100%, finishing the week at 72.84%. Petra Ilona Zacek stepped back into the top 5, finishing in fourth with a net return of 49.46%. Takumaru Sakakibara rounded out the top 5 again at 43.71%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – June 22nd, 2018
In the News
This week, leaders from OPEC member nations met in Vienna, Austria to discuss increasing oil production. On May 22nd, when oil prices were on a strong bullish rally, with WTI futures reaching $72.9/bbl and Brent futures eclipsing $80/bbl, Saudi Arabia and Russia leaned towards raising production by one million barrels per day. The markets corrected, with both WTI and Brent futures falling: however, the meeting resulted in a production increase of only 600,000. As demand grows with further economic development, and production wanes in Venezuela and Libya, time will tell if OPEC’s decision will be enough to quell rising fuel costs.
The rhetoric continued to escalate this week surrounding the American and Chinese trade discussions, as China officially retaliated this week, matching the Trump administration’s $50 billion tariff. In response, President Trump has threatened another $200 billion in tariffs against China, and currently has a team going through the $500 billion of Chinese imports the U.S. received in 2017. Meanwhile, China still holds about $1.2 trillion in U.S. bonds.
As the tariff skirmishes continue, traders and investors should eye the impact rising import prices will have on inflation, as the Federal Reserve has already raised their planned interest rate hikes from a total of 3 to 4.
In the Markets
Precious metals fell this week, with platinum down 1.63%, gold down 0.61%, and silver falling 0.13%. Copper and iron also fell, down 3.74% and 2.06% respectively.
With OPEC’s production increase coming in 40% less than the markets predicted, WTI and Brent futures both rallied. WTI climbed 6.84% to $68.58/bbl, and Brent crude futures rose 3.12% to $75.38/bbl.
Grains took another hit this week, though not as substantial as last week’s steep drop off. Soybeans fell 1.21%, corn fell 1.11%, and wheat fell 1.63%.
The dollar weakened slightly, with the index falling to 94.18. The S&P dropped 0.9% and the NASDAQ fell 0.7%, however it was the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with heavy risk exposure to Chinese markets, that felt the biggest hit from trade war tensions, falling by 2.0%, wiping out its YTD gains.
Smolen Rallies, Extending Lead
Jan Smolen extended his lead over Paul Skarp to its largest margin of the year, on the back of a 50% rally on the week. Jan finished with a net return of 223.71%, leading Skarp by over 120%. Paul held onto second place, closing the week at 100.84%. Third place was a toss-up between Wayne Wan and Kurt Sakaeda, with Kurt taking over third on Tuesday through Thursday, but Wayne rallied on Friday, retaking the spot and finishing with a net return of 74.35%. Sakaeda finished in fourth with a net return of 58.06%, and the top 5 was rounded out with Takumaru Sakakibara ending the week at 46.36%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – June 15th, 2018
In the News
The week ended with a substantial development in the U.S. China trade conflict, as the long rumored tariff skirmish materialized into reality with the Trump administration announcing a 25% tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. China was quick to respond, stating that they will enforce equivalent tariffs against the U.S., followed by President Trump claiming that the U.S. would levy additional tariffs on top of those going into effect July 6th in response to any retaliatory measures taken by China.
As tensions between China and the U.S. escalated, the Singapore summit between President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un seemed to calm relations between Washington and Pyongyang. While this was only the first of the many meetings that will be required to reach any sort of accord, denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, Washington’s top priority in the region, was on the table.
The Fed made its second rate increase of 2018, increasing interest rates by 25 bases points, and announced intentions to make 2 more rate increases this year.
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank announced that it would continue its quantitative easing (QE) program through December. QE was originally set to end in September, but the ECB will continue the purchasing of government and private debt, though at a decreased rate in the final quarter, moving from 30 billion euros of debt a month to 15 billion euros.
In the Markets
Commodities showed broad pullbacks this week as substantial economic and geopolitical developments rocked North America, Europe, and Asia. Precious metals all fell, with gold down 1.86%, silver down 1.56%, and platinum down 1.98%.
WTI Crude fell 1.03%, while Brent Crude dove 4.28% on the week. Oil products didn’t fare any better, with Gasoline down 4.35% and Heating Oil falling 3.57%. Energy didn’t face a total loss this week, as Natural Gas climbed 4.57%.
Grains posted losses across the board, with soybeans, a top U.S. export to China, down 6.58%, Corn down 4.37%, and CBOT Wheat down 3.96%.
With the ECB’s QE decision leading the euro down, the dollar index strengthened this week, up 1.44%.
The S&P 500 finished dead even on the week, while the NASDAQ rose 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%.
Leader Turned Advisor
Jan Smolen held onto his lead, finishing the week with a net return of 173%. Jan also was announced as the latest member of the World Cup Advisor Team. Second place was a point of contention between Paul Skarp and Wayne Wan this week, but Skarp managed to reclaim second place with a net return of 112.4%, while Wan remained in third with a net return of 64.82%. Kurt Sakaeda returned to the top 5, finishing just a few points behind Wayne Wan in 4th place with a net return of 62.91%. Takumaru Sakakibara rounded out the top 5 with a net return of 50.42%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – June 8th, 2018
In the News
Last week ended with the Charlevoix G7 summit in La Malbaie, Quebec, as Italy, Germany, France, Japan, and the U.S. joined Canada for the 2 day conference. The summit ended with a 28 point joint communique covering a wide range of issues including trade, North Korea’s denuclearization, and Russia’s foreign policy. All seven members did not remain on the communique for long, however, as President Trump tweeted while in route to Singapore that he would instruct U.S. reps to not endorse the agreement. The response came after Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. The sentiment from the Trump administration was that the Canadian tariff announcement was in bad faith with respect to the discussions President Trump had with Trudeau over the weekend.
According to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, the U.S.’s sanctions against China’s ZTE, including a $1 billion penalty against the telecom company, will end in a new deal that will bring a change in ZTE’s board of directors and executives. The deal could have positive ripple effects in the ongoing trade negotiations with China.
While this last week was relatively quiet with market-moving news, this coming week has a substantial docket, including the anticipated summit between President Trump and Kim Jong Un in Singapore, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, as well as the probably 25 basis points interest rate hike to be announced by the Fed.
In the Markets
Silver and gold both posted strong gains in the wake of a weakening dollar, with silver up 1.82% and gold up 0.26%. June futures of the dollar index fell 0.67%, ending the greenback’s bullish streak.
With strike worries surrounding the Escondida mine in Chile, copper soared last week up 6.5%. Oil prices continued to fall, with WTI crude down 0.11%, and Brent crude down 0.55%. Grains had a very bearish weak. Wheat fell 0.62%, corn was down 3.51%, and Soybeans had the worst performance down 5.09% on the week.
All three major indices posted gains, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.8%, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, and the NASDAQ was up 1.2%.
Top Three All Post Gains
The top three traders, Jan Smolen, Paul Skarp, and Wayne Wan, who have held their positions since May 30th, all showed increases in their net return. Wayne briefly took second place on Tuesday, before finishing in third at 97.75%, up 33.51% on the week. Paul Skarp held on to second place to close the week, up 32.5% on the week to close with a net return of 113.68% on the year. Despite their furious gains, Jan Smolen held onto his lead, gaining 31.78% on the week, and reaching his new high for the year at 198.24%.
Takumaru Sakakibara and Kurt Sakaeda battled back and forth to start the week, but it was a newcomer Craig Fullen who snagged 4th place, finishing the week at 69.3%, with Sakakibara behind him rounding out the top 5 with a net return of 50.74%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – June 1st, 2018
In the News
The highest-ranking North Korean official to visit the United States in 18 years touched down in Washington, D.C. last week. Kim Yong Chol, regarded as Kim Jong-un’s right-hand man, met with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday before delivering a letter from Kim Jong Un to President Trump in a much anticipated meeting on Friday. Following the meeting, it appears the June 12th summit in Singapore is back on, although in an impromptu press conference after Friday’s letter exchange, President Trump acknowledged that the Singapore summit would be one of several meetings needed to reach common ground with North Korea.
Italy remained a top story last week, as fears surrounding government stability led to a sell-off in the nation’s debt securities. A potential Italian exit from the European Union remains a central factor in the European economy, as well as the global economy.
In a move that shook markets this week, the Trump administration announced that aluminum and steel tariffs would be levied against the Europen Union, Mexico, and Canada. These were the same tariffs announced several months back, where exemptions had been given to European allies and NAFTA members: however, following a lack of desired progress in trade talks, President Trump chose to remove those exemptions. This call was met with strong push back, especially regarding the legal basis for the tariffs; the legal grounds used by the Trump administration was centered on national security concerns, causing U.S. allies to balk at the idea that such security concerns would be pointed at them. Many affected nations, including Canada, have threatened counter tariffs against the U.S. leading to the G7 summit.
U.S. markets received a boon as the May employment report showed unemployment falling to 3.8%, with a slight increase in wage growth.
In the Markets
WTI Crude Oil continued its fall last week, dropping over 3% to $65.81/bbl on July Futures. Brent Crude climbed slightly, however, causing the WTI Brent spread to eclipse $10/bbl. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and Venezuela, as well as OPEC’s decisions on increasing production, will have direct effects on the future trajectory of crude.
The U.S. dollar continued its bullish rise last week, with Dollar Index futures spiking to just under 95 on Wednesday. It fell to end the week, however, closing at 94.169.
In a highly volatile week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week down 0.5%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, and the NASDAQ climbed 1.6%.
World Cup Trading Championship update
Jan Smolen, who took the lead for the first time last week, saw his lead grow to almost 95% on Thursday, before finishing the week at 85%, which stand as the two greatest leads Smolen has held since taking over first place on May 21st. He finished the week at a net return of 166.46%.
Paul Skarp held onto second place, finishing the week with a net return of 81.18%. Wayne Wan, who had a bit back and forth fight with Jonathan Brum da Silva as they competed for the third place, finished on top with a net return of 64.24% as he attempts to close in on the top two traders. Brum da Silva finished at 51.72%.
The fifth place position saw the return of 3 time World Cup Trading Champion Kurt Sakaeda, who had been on hiatus from the top 5 since March 13th. Sakaeda took over Takumaru Sakakibara on Thursday, and finished the week at a net return of 44.11%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – May 25th, 2018
In the News
President Trump called off the June 12th summit with North Korea on Thursday. Following this announcement, South Korean president Moon Jae-in met with North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un on Saturday, and it appears that for the time being, the meetings between U.S. and North Korea are back on the table as Washington continues preparations for the meeting in Singapore.
Meanwhile, European markets could take a hit as Italy, one of the EU’s largest economies, faces internal political turmoil. Populist parties The Five Star Movement and The League won March parliamentary elections on the way to forming a coalition, only to be vetoed by President Mattarella in favor of an interim government. As the situation unfolds, the ramifications could not only impact Italian markets and the euro, but may have impacts across the Atlantic.
Global oil supplies may receive a boon as OPEC and Russia held meetings to discuss increasing production. This comes as Venezuela’s production crisis continues. Venezuela’s state run oil company PDVSA owns Houston-based Citgo, and in 2016 placed a large share of Citgo up as collateral for a loan from Russia’s petroleum giant Rosneft, putting the health of the Latin American oil market at the center of the global economic landscape.
In the Markets
Crude oil fell sharply on Friday in response to OPEC and Russia’s discussions on production hikes. WTI July futures fell below the $70/bbl mark, dropping 5% to $67.88. Brent futures dropped 3.56% to $76.48, and the crack spread higher as oil products continued to outperform crude.
The dollar continued its bullish streak as the index climbed to a high of 94.19 last week. Precious metals also placed gains last week, with gold up 0.96%, silver up 0.55%, and platinum up 1.67%.
Agricultural commodities strengthened as Soybeans, Corn, CBOT Wheat, sugar, and coffee all posted gains on the week. The major indices all saw minor gains over the week, with the S&P up 0.31%, the NASDAQ up 1.08%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.15%.
Taking over the Lead
After 63 straight trading days at the top of the WCTC leaderboard, Paul Skarp was finally overtaken by Jan Smolen, who had been sitting in second place since mid-April. Smolen finished the week up 46%, closing Friday in first place at 148.17%. Skarp held onto second, finishing with a net return of 91.93%.
Wayne Wan held onto third for the 13th day in a row, finishing the week at 74.89%. Carlos Eisenberg managed a climb into the top 5 on Monday, but Jonathan Brum da Silva regained 4th place with a net return of 70.01%, putting pressure on Wan as he closed within 5% of 3rdplace.
Takumaru Sakakibara held onto 5th place, finishing the week at 40.87%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – May 18th, 2018
In the News
This week brought tension regarding the June 12 meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong Un, as North Korean officials pushed back against any plans that involve unilateral abandonment of their nuclear weapons capabilities. As the historic summit in Singapore inches closer, Pyongyang expressed critiques of the U.S. model used in Libya in 2003, where dictator Muammar Qaddafi made a deal to remove their nuclear weapons, only to be captured and killed by U.S. backed rebels in 2011. Concerned that he could share this fate, Kim may enter Singapore in June with a defensive stance towards the Trump administration’s primary target of denuclearization.
The U.S. and China made steps in their negotiations this week, as the White House announced China’s intentions to make an additional $200 billion in purchases from the U.S, which the Trump administration hopes would cut into the trade deficit with China, which reached $375.2 billion last year. A wrench was thrown into the system, however, when the Chinese media denied this claim on Friday, calling the alleged trade deficit decrease a misunderstanding.
In the Markets
Treasury yields rose as the 10-yr Treasury note hit 3.11%, its highest level since 2011. As this sent June Treasury bond futures on the decline, the USD rallied, with the index up 1.23% higher on the week. Gold suffered as the USD strengthened, falling by 2.12% on the week and reaching a new low for 2018 as June futures fell below $1300.
Crude Oil remained bullish, with WTI June Futures climbing by 0.82%, while Brent Crude surpassed $80/bbl before closing the week up 2.97% at $79.30/bbl. Gasoline rose 2.32%, and heating oil was up by 2.03% as crack spreads increased with strong performances from oil products.
All three major stock indices saw losses this week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 falling 0.5%, while the NASDAQ dropped 0.7%.
The Challenger Remains
Wayne Wan announced himself in this tournament by vaulting into the top 3 this month. Wan let his competitors know he was here to stay, retaining third place, with a net gain of 1.38% on the week to close Friday at 85.18%.
Jan Smolen dropped 6.6% on the week, but held onto second place. His deficit to front runner Paul Skarp ended the week at only 17.1%, as both he and Wan maintain their focus on the pole position. Skarp has seen these close spreads before, but has managed to stay ahead of his competition, extending his streak to 63 days in a row atop the leaderboard.
A Familiar Name Returns
After a two week hiatus, with only one posted top 5 in the month of May, Jonathan Brum Da Silva returned to the top 5. Silva held a position on the leaderboard for 19 straight trading days in March and April, and looks to return to that form as he closed the week in 4th place with a net return of 49.62%.
Rounding out the top 5 was Takumaru Sakakibara, who maintained his position with a net return of 40.01%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – May 14th, 2018
In the News
Having repeatedly stated his dissatisfaction with Obama era policies, President Trump officially pulled the United States from the Iran nuclear nonproliferation agreement. With the deal off the table, economic sanctions against Iran are potentially back on. Pending renegotiation, Iran exports could be heavily impacted by U.S. sanctions, especially their crude production. In the wake of this, the OPEC agreement on production cuts may be brought to the forefront as the world deals with the potential impact on global oil markets.
As meetings between Kim Jong-Un and President Trump inch closer, three U.S. citizens were released from North Korean prisons. As tensions in the Middle East grow, investors will be closely monitoring the potential cooling on the Korean Peninsula.
The April Consumer Price Index report showed a slower than expected inflation growth, quelling concerns of the Fed developing a more hawkish stance towards interest rates.
In the Markets
With markets facing supply pressure, crude oil continued to rally last week, posting a three year high as WTI June futures eclipsed $70 a barrel. Brent Crude also climbed, up 2.95% on the July futures, rising to $77.01 a barrel. Rising oil prices have a myriad of potential ramifications on other commodities, putting developments in the Middle East, home to more than 50% of the world’s oil reserves, at the center of the futures market.
Precious metals posted gains this week, despite the dollar also displaying strong performance, with the USD index reaching a new high of 93.26 on June futures contracts. Gold was up 0.35%, silver up 1.10%, and platinum up 1.57%.
In the stock market, the big three all rallied this week, continuing one of the longest bull markets in U.S. history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, the S&P 500 climbed 2.4%, and the NASDAQ rallied by 2.7%.
The Top Two Remain
Paul Skarp maintained his lead through May 11th, closing the week at a net return of 186.58%, up just over 8% on the week. His lead over Jan Smolen expanded from its year low last week, reaching a spread of 78.47%. Smolen stretched his second place streak to 22 trading days, closing the week at 108.11%, well within striking distance of Skarp’s lead. As markets face growing international pressure, the front runners in the WCTC look to hold up to the increasing pressure from the rest of the field.
A Meteoric Rise
Not only does the leaderboard have a new challenger among its ranks, but that challenger ascended to third place in just three days. Wayne Wan from Turkey posted a 47.5% net return on May 9th. He climbed another 30% by Thursday, only to rise once again by market close on Friday, finishing the week at a year-to-date return of 83.05%.
Artur Teregluv maintained his strong rally over the last 3 weeks, finishing his 12th trading day in a row on the leaderboard with a net return of 66.43%. Fifth place was a toss-up once again this week, as Fabian Fischer and Jonathan Brum da Silva fought to start the week, but it was Takumaru Sakakibara who took the reins, climbing back into the leaderboard with a return of 42.69%.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – May 8th, 2018
Market News
The 4% mark was finally broken; the April U.S. employment report showed an addition of 164,000 new jobs, bringing unemployment to an 18 year low of 3.9%. Amidst an increasingly tight labor market, wage growth remained slow, up 4 cents in April and 2.6% since this time last year. As investors and Fed officials continue to eye inflation, stocks rallied on Friday after posting losses through Thursday. Despite Friday’s gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both feel 0.2% on the week, while the NASDAQ climbed 1.3%.
As President Trump’s decision regarding the Iran nuclear deal loomed, crude oil prices continued to climb last week approaching the $70/bbl level. Iran is one of the world’s top 5 largest oil producers, meaning that policy decisions could have broad impacts on the oil market. The dollar continued its upward momentum for the 3rd straight week, while gold June futures posted 0.66% loss on the week. Lumber again posted a new record high this year, climbing 3.33% through May 4th.
The Gap Narrows
Paul Skarp held on to first place on every trade day this week, extending his streak to 53 days straight atop the leaderboard: however, on Thursday, May 3rd that lead shrunk to its smallest margin all year. Second place trader Jan Smolen, who has maintained that position since April 12th, closed Thursday at a 173.2% net return, just 0.3% behind Skarp’s 173.5%. Skarp made gains before the week ended, extending his lead to 25.8%. While no longer razor thin, the gap has closed significantly as the traders continue to battle.
A Constant Shuffle for Position
Third place was retained by 2016 WCTC Futures Champion Artur Teregulov, who burst into the top 5 on April 26th, and has since climbed to a net return of 67.21% by market close on Friday. He is no stranger to the WCTC, and the veteran will be eyeing the two newer competitors as he chases his second title in 3 years.
Allen Swiontek held on to 4th place, remaining in striking distance of Skarp and Smolen. Fifth place, however, has been a point of contention over the last 2 weeks. From April 23rd through May 3rd, Jonathan Brum da Silva and Graeme Adams continued to wrestle back and forth, with Adams securing the spot to close 6 trading days, while Silva took over for 5.
A Newcomer Challenges the Leaderboard
While Silva and Adams played musical chairs, shuffling back and forth, it was a new name that closed the week on the top 5. Finishing May 4th with a net return of 28.43%, Fabian Fischer of Luxemburg jumped into the ring, looking to continue his climb.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.
Weekly Market Recap – May 1st, 2018
In the Markets
To begin 2018, the bullish run of 2017 remained as stocks continued to rise in historic fashion while volatility remained low. Fast forward to February, and the landscape changed dramatically. Volatility returned to the market with a vengeance, and while it has fallen since the spike on February 6th, it has remained well above the stable trend set in 2017. This comes as no surprise, as traders have had a copious amount of newsworthy events to react to.
In the News
One of the biggest stories of 2018 has been the tariffs. With 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum through an executive order by President Trump, the initial tariffs went into effect in March. These quickly faded into the background, however, as further tariffs were threatened against China. China responded with similar posturing, as rumors of a trade war dominated the airways pending negotiations.
Following this trend, tensions grew over the last three weeks in the Middle East. An allied airstrike by the US, UK, and France was carried out against suspected chemical weapons facilities in Syria on April 7th in response to alleged use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime. With Russia positioning on the opposite side of the Syrian conflict, the world has watched with baited breath for the Kremlin’s response. International affairs took a positive turn this last week, with North and South Korean leaders meeting for the first time, beginning to build bridges of peace across the 38th parallel.
Weathering the Storm
With recent volatility, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 1.7% on the year as of April 27th, while the S&P has dropped 0.1%. The tech heavy NASDAQ, however, has managed to navigate 2018 on the way to a 3.1% year to date growth.
In commodities last month, crude oil continued to climb, reaching its highest level since November 2014. Both Brent and WTI crude futures remained around the $70 mark last week. The dollar posted a strong week, up 1.4% since April 20th, while lumber again climbed to a new record high.
For many, market conditions in 2018 are a welcomed change to 2017’s record low volatility. We at Robbins Trading Company have hosted the 35th consecutive ultimate trading challenge, giving professional traders the opportunity to showcase their talents in real time with real money. While some may see the profits as reward enough in themselves, those who have committed to trading as their career have flocked to the WCTC as a means of gaining notoriety and recognition for their efforts, along with the potential of joining our World Cup Advisor team.
Adapting to Market Conditions
For some, 2018 may present the perfect opportunity.
In the 2018 competition, a clear frontrunner and favorite has emerged in Paul Skarp of the United States. In a stunning flurry of trades, Paul posted haymaker trade after haymaker trade to open the year. From the first day of tracking on February 20th, Skarp took over the pole position, and has not relinquished it once over 48 trading days. Skarp has dealt with his own internal volatility, experiencing peaks and valleys like any trader, but still managed to close last week at 213.7%, more than enough to maintain his lead.
The next trader to take center stage on our leaderboard was the United States’ Allen Swiontek. On February 22nd he exploded into the top 5, taking only one more day to secure second place on February 23rd. He held onto that second place position from February 23rd through April 11th, posting a year high net return of 158.94% on April 5th. Swiontek also has been the closest to surpassing Skarp’s, coming within 38% of first place on April 6th. Since his peak, Swiontek has dropped in April, ending April 27th at 44.32%, holding onto third place.
The last member of the top 3, who has joined the two Americans at the top of the leader board, is Jan Smolen of Slovakia. Smolen first broke into the top 5 on March 1st, reaching 51.51%. For the next month and a half he remained in the top 5, bouncing back and forth between 3rd and 4th place, until finally, on April 13th, he broke the century mark for the first time all year, souring to 113.93% net return, passing Swiontek to finish in 2nd. Since then Smolen has continued to climb, reaching his year high of 143.1% on April 27th, closing the gap between himself and Skarp to 70.6%, its second lowest mark to date.
Chasing the Leaders
Another big story this year has not just been Paul Skarp’s lead over each other individual trader, but his besting of the field as a whole. The lead was so staggering through February that I began tracking Skarp’s performance against “the Field” (2nd-5th combined), and through April 3rd Skarp’s returns surpassed the Field’s on 29 out of 30 trade days. Since then, however, the Field has caught up and maintained a slight edge over Skarp, closing the week at 271.84%.
Every single trade day in the months of March and April have featured Skarp, Swiontek, and Smolen in the top 5, with 18 of those days holding them in the top 3. The other two positions in that time span, however, have shuffled between 9 different traders. To close last week, those two members were Jonathan Brum da Silva making his 23rd appearance at 42.96% and 2016 WCTC Futures champion Artur Tereglov, who broke into the top 5 for the first time this week, closing trading in 5th place with a net return of 41.46%.
The other competitors who have reached the top 5 this year, in order of days spent on the leaderboard, Leonid Trubenkov (16), Kurt Sakaeda (16), Takumaru Sakakibara (15), Andrei Balansescu (15), Thomas Thurzo (10), Graeme Adams (7), and Petra Ilona Zacek (1). As they fight to break back into the top 5, those on our leaderboard will seek to maintain their dominance over the field, as the traders seek the coveted title of World Cup Trading Champion.
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Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition.