WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – NOVEMBER 21, 2025
The NASDAQ extended its losing streak to a third consecutive week as renewed doubts emerged over the sustainability of this year’s AI-driven rally. The index fell 2.7% for the week, while the S&P 500 and Dow—less heavily weighted toward technology stocks—recorded smaller declines of just under 2.0%.
Market volatility was fueled by shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. By Friday afternoon, rate futures reflected a roughly 72% probability of a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting, according to CME FedWatch—up sharply from about 30% just two days earlier.
A long-delayed U.S. jobs report released Thursday showed signs of labor market stabilization before the government shutdown began. The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double economists’ forecasts, though the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, its highest level since October 2021.
Volatility surged for a second straight week. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumped as high as 28 on Thursday before retreating to 23 by Friday’s close, up from just under 20 the previous week.
Earnings season concluded on a strong note, with corporate profitability reaching historic highs. According to FactSet, S&P 500 companies posted an average third-quarter net profit margin of 13.1%, surpassing the previous record of 13.0% set in the second quarter of 2021. It marked the seventh consecutive quarterly increase in margins.
Treasury yields fell late in the week after comments from a Fed official boosted confidence in the likelihood of a December rate cut. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended Friday at 4.06%, down from 4.15% the prior week.
Meanwhile, a backlog of economic data from the recent 43-day government shutdown continued to cloud visibility for investors and policymakers heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. Several key reports—including October’s unemployment rate, Consumer Price Index, and third-quarter GDP estimate—remain delayed or canceled due to data collection disruptions.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| Empire State manufacturing survey | Nov. | 18.7 | 10.7 |
| Construction spending (delayed report) | Aug. | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Import price index | Oct. | NA | |
| Import price index minus fuel | Oct. | NA | |
| Industrial production | Oct. | NA | |
| Capacity utilization | Oct. | NA | |
| Factory orders (delayed report) | Aug. | 1.4% | -1.3% |
| Home builder confidence index | Nov. | 38 | 37 |
| Housing starts | Oct. | NA | |
| Building permits | Oct. | NA | |
| U.S. trade deficit [delayed report] | Aug. | $-59.6B | -$78.2B |
| U.S. employment report (delayed report) | Sept. | 119,000 | 22,000 |
| U.S. unemployment rate (delayed report) | Sept. | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| U.S. hourly wages | Sept. | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Hourly wages year over year | 3.8% | 3.8% | |
| Initial jobless claims | Nov. 15 | 220,000 | 232,000 |
| Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey | Nov. | -1.7 | -12.8 |
| Existing home sales | Oct. | 4.1 million | 4.05 million |
| U.S. leading economic indicators | Oct. | NA | |
| S&P flash U.S. services PMI | Nov. | 55 | 54.8 |
| S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI | Nov. | 51.9 | 52.5 |
| U Mich consumer sentiment (final) | Nov. | 51.0 | 50.3 |
| Wholesale inventories (delayed report) | Aug. | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 46,245.41 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,273.08 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,602.99 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 23.43 |
| S&P GSCI | 546.39 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 100.180 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Dec ’25) | 113-080 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Jan ’26) | 58.06 |
| Natural Gas (Jan ’26) | 4.743 |
| Gold (Dec ’25) | 4,079.5 |
| Silver (Dec ’25) | 49.913 |
| Corn (Mar ’26) | 437-4 |
| Wheat (Mar ’26) | 539-6 |
| Soybean (Jan ’26) | 1125-0 |
| Coffee (Mar ’26) | 369.45 |
| Sugar #11 (Mar ’26) | 14.78 |
| Cocoa (Mar ’26) | 5,159 |
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