WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – DECEMBER 12, 2025

The S&P 500 and Dow notched fresh record highs on Thursday, surpassing levels set just weeks earlier, but both pulled back on Friday to end a mixed week for equities. The Dow posted a 1.1% gain for the week, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.6% and the NASDAQ declined 1.6%.

At its third consecutive meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-point reduction in its benchmark interest rate. The decision revealed some internal division: nine voting members supported the cut, two favored no change, and one dissented in favor of a larger half-point move, underscoring uncertainty about the pace of policy easing in 2026.

Market leadership remained uneven. Technology and growth stocks that have powered much of 2025’s rally weighed on overall returns, while cyclical and value-oriented shares advanced. A large-cap value benchmark rose 0.6% for the week, compared with a 1.5% decline for its growth counterpart.

Small-cap stocks continued to show strength. The Russell 2000 Index reached a record high on Thursday, capping a surge of more than 12% over 15 trading sessions dating back to November 20. Although the index pulled back on Friday, it still finished the week up about 1.2%.

After three rate cuts in 2025, bond markets reflected ongoing uncertainty about how much further easing lies ahead. By Friday afternoon, fed funds futures suggested roughly a 70% probability of at least two additional quarter-point cuts in 2026, a 23% chance of just one cut, and a 7% likelihood of no cuts, according to CME FedWatch.

Energy prices moved lower. U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 4% for the week, sliding to their lowest level since mid-October as renewed concerns about global oversupply emerged. Oil traded near $57.40 per barrel on Friday and was down about 9% for the year.

Precious metals diverged. While gold’s 2025 rally has drawn significant attention, silver posted far stronger gains. Spot silver briefly touched a record near $65 per ounce on Friday before settling around $62, leaving the metal up roughly 115% year to date.

Looking ahead, Tuesday’s labor market report will be atypical due to delays caused by the recent government shutdown. The release will include payroll data for both October and November, but the unemployment rate will be reported only for November, as household survey data was not collected in October.