WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – OCTOBER 17, 2025

All three major U.S. stock indexes rose about 2% for the week, rebounding from the previous week’s more than 2% declines. Trading remained volatile, with sharp price swings across key assets such as cryptocurrencies and gold.

Stocks’ gains came amid heightened uncertainty over trade policy and concerns about regional bank lending. These worries fueled brief but significant market swings, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) on Friday morning touching its highest intraday level since April before retreating later in the day. By Friday’s close, the VIX ended slightly lower for the week.

Earnings season began on a strong note, as major U.S. banks reported better-than-expected third-quarter profits and revenues, helped by a pickup in investment banking activity. According to FactSet, analysts now estimate financial sector earnings grew 18.2% year over year—well above the 8.5% growth forecast for all S&P 500 sectors.

Gold extended its rally, surging more than 5% for the week and marking its ninth straight weekly gain. The precious metal briefly reached $4,392 per ounce on Friday morning—just over a week after surpassing the $4,000 mark for the first time.

In the bond market, yields fell as investors sought safety amid Thursday’s equity weakness. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4.00% for the first time since April, while the 2-year yield slid under 3.40% on Friday—the lowest in more than three years.

Oil prices continued to weaken. U.S. crude futures fell for a third consecutive week, briefly trading below $57 per barrel on Friday before recovering slightly. Ongoing concerns over a potential global supply glut and slowing economic growth have weighed heavily on prices.

While the U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1 has delayed several key data releases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced plans to issue its monthly inflation report on a delayed basis by Friday, October 24, to meet statutory requirements for inflation-linked benefits. The most recent Consumer Price Index, released September 11, showed annual inflation at 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% in July.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

ReportPeriodActualPrevious
NFIB optimism indexSept.98.8100.8
Empire State manufacturing surveyOct.10.7-8.7
U.S. retail salesSept.0.6%
Retail sales minus autosSept.0.7%
Producer price indexSept.-0.1%
Core PPISept.0.3%
PPI year over year2.6%
Core PPI year over year2.8%
Initial jobless claimsOct. 11NA
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveyOct.-12.823.2
Business inventoriesAug.0.2%
Home builder confidence indexOct.3732
Housing startsSept.1.31 million
Building permitsSept.1.31 million
Import price indexSept.0.3%
Import price index minus fuelSept.0.4%
Industrial productionSept.0.1%
Capacity utilizationSept.77.4%

Closing Prices for the Week

ContractClose
Dow Jones Industrials Average46,190.61
Nasdaq Composite22,679.97
S&P 500 Index6,664.01
CBOE Volatility Index20.78
S&P GSCI539.84
U.S. Dollar Index98.433
10-Year T-Note (Dec ’25)113-150
Crude Oil WTI (Dec ’25)57.15
Natural Gas (Nov ’25)3.008
Gold (Dec ’25)4,213.3
Silver (Dec ’25)50.104
Corn (Dec ’25)422-4
Wheat (Dec ’25)503-6
Soybean (Nov ’25)1019-4
Coffee (Dec ’25)397.45
Sugar #11 (Mar ’26)15.50
Cocoa (Dec ’25)5,895

Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

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