WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – OCTOBER 10, 2025

The U.S. stock market’s recent rally stalled last week as a sharp sell-off on Friday erased earlier gains. The S&P 500 fell 2.4% for the week—its third weekly decline in the past ten—while the NASDAQ lost 2.5% and the Dow dropped 2.7%.

The S&P 500 had been on track for a modest advance until midday Friday, when rising tensions between the U.S. and China triggered a steep downturn. President Trump announced he was considering additional tariffs on Chinese imports and saw “no reason” to proceed with a planned meeting with China’s leader, citing new restrictions China had imposed on exports of rare earth minerals. The remarks sent the index tumbling 2.7% for the day.

Gold extended its winning streak to an eighth consecutive week, surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever. By Friday afternoon, gold traded near $4,030—up about 50% year to date—while silver had gained more than 70%.

Oil prices moved sharply in the opposite direction. U.S. crude futures plunged more than 5% on Friday following renewed tariff threats, closing near $58 per barrel—the lowest level in over five months—as concerns about potential global oversupply persisted.

Although the ongoing U.S. government shutdown continued to delay key economic data releases, the Federal Reserve published minutes from its recent meeting, where it cut interest rates by a quarter point. The minutes reinforced expectations for additional rate reductions before year-end, with many Fed officials noting risks of further labor market softening without additional easing.

In international markets, Japan’s main stock index surged nearly 5% on Monday to a record high following a leadership change in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. However, it later retreated after a coalition partner withdrew support, raising uncertainty over whether Sanae Takaichi will assume the prime ministership.

Looking ahead, major U.S. banks are set to launch the third-quarter earnings season on Tuesday. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect S&P 500 companies to post average earnings growth of around 8% year over year, which would mark the ninth straight quarter of profit expansion.

Dividend growth also gained momentum in the third quarter. S&P 500 companies reported $10.6 billion in net dividend increases, up sharply from $7.4 billion in the previous quarter, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The firm projects full-year dividend growth to reach a record in 2025, rising nearly 6% from 2024.