Weekly Market Recap – November 25, 2022

Continuing Russian attacks on power plants and other energy infrastructure targets have left an estimated six million Ukrainians in the cold and dark. Black Friday spending hit a record $9.12 billion, despite inflation and recession fears. Economists watching holiday activity are also focused on the potential threat of a national railway strike, which hinges on labor issues that need to be resolved before December 9th.

Thanksgiving holiday week was light on government statistics reports. Monthly figures were: durable goods orders +1.0% vs. +0.3%, core capital equipment orders +0.7% vs. -0.8% and new home sales 632,000 vs. 588,000. For the weekly unemployment numbers, initial claims were 240,000 vs. 223,000 and continuing jobless claims showed 1.55 million compared to 1.50 million the previous week. There were no major quarterly reports.

The three stock market indices we follow increased during the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 34,347.03, up 1.8% from the previous Friday, the highest end-of- week level since April 21st (34,792.76). The S&P 500 rose 1.5% to 4,026.12, and the NASDAQ Composite went out at 11,226.36 (+0.7%). Volatility in equities contracted 11.3% for the week, evidenced by CBOE’s VIX settling at 20.50 on Friday. In currencies, the USD Index eased all week, with the futures closing at 105.917 (-0.9%). The portfolio of commodity futures contracts in the S&P GSCI ended the week at 604.90 (-2.3%).

The metals futures contracts we monitor were mixed. Settlements and weekly percentage changes were: gold at $1,754.00 (-0.02%), silver at $21.430 (+2.1%), platinum at $987.80 (+0.4%), palladium at $1,821.50 (-6.1%), copper at $3.6275 (-0.1%) and aluminum at $2,362.50 (-2.8%).

As with the prior week, the energy commodity sub categories moved in opposite directions. The petroleum sector dropped, while the methane sector rallied. Closing prices and their respective movements were as follows: WTI crude at $76.28/bbl (-4.8%), Brent crude at $83.63 (-4.6%), heating oil at $3.2391 per gallon (-7.9%), RBOB gasoline at $2.3282 (-3.8%), NYMEX natural gas at $7.024 per MmBtu (+11.4%), and ICE TTF Dutch gas at €124.370 per MWh (+7.7%).

Of the nine agricultural futures on our radar, four decreased, four increased and one didn’t budge. Those that went into the red were: wheat at $7.75½ (-3.5%), sugar at 19.33¢ (-3.6%), cotton at 80.18¢ (-4.3%), and lean hogs at 83.775 (-0.5%). The gainers were: soybeans at $14.42¼ (+0.6%), corn at $6.68 (+0.04%), coffee at $1.6505 (+6.4%), and cocoa at $2,484 (+1.1%). The live cattle contract was the sleeper, ending the week at the same price as the previous Friday: 153.075 (0.0%).


Futures Referenced in Market Recap

ExchangeCommodityContract Month
CMELive CattleDecember
CMELean HogsDecember
ICEBrent CrudeJanuary
ICEDutch TTF GasDecember
ICEUSD IndexDecember
NYMEXWTI CrudeJanuary
NYMEXULSD (Heating Oil)December
NYMEXRBOB (Gasoline)December
NYMEXNatural GasDecember
LMEAluminum3 Mo. Forward

Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

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