Weekly Market Recap – November 18, 2022

The U.S midterm election vote count was finally completed, giving the GOP control of the House, with the Democrats controlling the Senate. Ahead of the G20 summit, President Biden and China’s president Xi Jinping agreed to restart climate change talks; the world’s two largest economies are also the biggest emitters of greenhouse gasses. Two people in Poland, near the Ukraine border, were killed by a blast from a missile. Poland’s president and NATO later said the incident was an accident, the projectile was mistakenly launched by a Ukrainian defense unit.

Monthly economic statistics released during the week, compared with the prior month, were as follows: producer price index (final demand) was unchanged at +0.2%, business inventories +0.4% vs. +0.5%, retail sales +1.3% vs. 0.0%, retail sales excluding motor vehicles +1.3% vs. +0.1%, industrial production -0.1% vs. +0.1%, capacity utilization 79.9% vs. 80.1%, building permits 1.53 million vs. 1.56 million, housing starts 1.43 million vs. 1.49 million, existing home sales 4.43 million vs. 4.71 million, and leading economic indicators -0.8% vs. -0.5%. Weekly statistics for initial jobless claims fell to 222,000 from 226,000, and continuing unemployment claims were 1.51 million vs. 1.49 million. In quarterly reports, the third quarter figures compared with Q2 were: real household debt +6.9% vs.+0.8% and real mortgage debt +8.2% vs. +0.3%.

Stock markets held fairly steady throughout the week. For the three indices we track, Friday’s final levels and weekly net percentage changes were: DJIA at 33,745.69 (-0.01%), S&P 500 at 3,965.34 (-0.7%), and the NASDAQ Composite at 11,146.06 (-1.6%). Equities volatility reflected in the CBOE VIX inched to 23.12 (+2.7%). In currencies, USD Index futures went out at 106.826 (+0.6%). The commodities sector retreated 4.3% according to the S&P GSCI’s 618.85 close.

All six metals futures we monitor moved to the downside. Settlement prices and weekly percentage decreases were: gold at $1,754.40 (-0.8%), silver at $20.997 (-3.1%), platinum at $984.30 (-5.2%), palladium at $1,938.90 (-4.3%), copper at $3.6320 (-7.2%) and aluminum at $2,430.00 (-1.4%).

In our recap, the main sub-categories in the energy futures sector are the petroleum family and methane (natural gas). Regarding price movement, these two groups traded in opposite directions, as the former weakened and the latter strengthened. For the week, the final results and corresponding percentages looked like this: West Texas Intermediate crude at $80.08/bbl (-10.0%), Brent crude at $87.62 (-8.7%), heating oil at $3.5181 per gallon (-1.0%), RBOB gasoline at $2.4208 (-7.2%), NYMEX natural gas at $6.303 per MMBtu (+7.2%), and ICE Dutch gas at €115.509 per MWh (+18.0%).

In the Ag futures markets, the weekly trend movements for the nine products we track were 3 higher and 6 lower. The gainers were: corn at $6.67¾ (+1.5%), sugar at 20.05¢ (+2.1%), and live cattle at 153.075 (+1.0%). The contracts that fell into the red were: soybeans at $14.33¼ (-1.4%), wheat at $8.03¼ (-1.3%), coffee at $1.5510 (-7.7%), cotton at 83.78¢ (-3.0%), cocoa at $2,456 (-2.5%) and lean hogs at 84.225 (-0.1%)

Futures Referenced in Market Recap

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