WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – MAY 31, 2024
The major U.S. stock indexes fell between 0.5% and 1.0%, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ending a streak of five consecutive weekly gains that had driven them to record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its second consecutive negative week.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure showed little change from the previous month, remaining significantly above the 2.0% long-term target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased at an annual rate of 2.7% in April, consistent with March. Excluding food and energy, the core rate held steady at 2.8% for the third consecutive month.
In May, the S&P 500 rebounded nearly 5% from an April decline, marking its sixth positive month out of the last seven. The NASDAQ led with a nearly 7% gain, while the Dow rose more than 2%, though it fell back from its first-ever 40,000-point close reached on May 17.
First-quarter U.S. economic growth was revised down to an annualized 1.3%, from an initial estimate of 1.6%, due to lower consumer spending data. This rate was notably lower than the 3.4% recorded in the fourth quarter of the previous year.
Communication services led sector-level earnings growth in the recent earnings season, with a 34% year-over-year increase, according to FactSet. Healthcare lagged with a 25% decline. Overall, S&P 500 sectors averaged 6% earnings growth.
U.S. Treasury bonds saw significant fluctuations, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.64% on Wednesday, the highest in four weeks, before settling at around 4.49% by Friday, slightly up from 4.47% the previous week.
Small-cap U.S. stocks remained flat, while large-cap stocks saw a slight decline, reducing the year-to-date performance gap between the two. The small-cap index was unchanged for the week, compared to a 0.6% drop for the large-cap benchmark.
A monthly labor market report due on Friday will indicate if the trend of moderating job growth continued into May. In April, the economy added 175,000 jobs, down from 315,000 in March, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 3.9% and wage growth slowing.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) | March | 7.4% | 7.3% |
| Consumer confidence | May | 102 | 97.5 |
| Initial jobless claims | May 25 | 219,000 | 216,000 |
| GDP (first revision) | Q1 | 1.3% | 3.4% |
| Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods | April | -$99.4B | -$91.5B |
| Advanced retail inventories | April | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Advanced wholesale inventories | April | 0.2% | -0.4% |
| Pending home sales | April | -7.7% | 3.4% |
| Personal income | April | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Consumer spending | April | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| PCE index | April | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| PCE (year-over-year) | 2.7% | 2.7% | |
| Core PCE index] | April | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Core PCE (year-over-year) | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) | May | 35.4 | 37.9 |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 38,686.32 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 16,735.02 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,277.51 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 12.92 |
| S&P GSCI | 573.27 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 104.671 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Sep ’24) | 108-255 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Jul ’24) | 76.99 |
| Natural Gas (Jul ’24) | 2.587 |
| Gold (Aug ’24) | 2,345.8 |
| Silver (Jul ’24) | 30.440 |
| Corn (Jul ’24) | 446-2 |
| Wheat (Jul ’24) | 678-4 |
| Soybean (Jul ’24) | 1205-0 |
| Coffee (Jul ’24) | 222.35 |
| Sugar #11 (Jul ’24) | 18.30 |
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