U.S. stock indexes bounced back from the previous week’s modest decline, with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 surpassing the record highs set last month. Renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence boosted technology stocks, resulting in a 2.4% weekly gain for the NASDAQ, outpacing the more modest gains of the S&P 500 and Dow.

May’s job growth figure of 272,000 significantly exceeded economists’ forecasts of around 180,000, and wage growth also surpassed expectations, complicating the outlook for a potential interest rate cut this year. Following the report on Friday morning, government bond yields rose, and stocks remained relatively unchanged.

A U.S. large-cap growth index outperformed its value counterpart by a wide margin after lagging the previous week, extending the growth style’s year-to-date leadership. The growth index returned about 2.7% for the week, while the value benchmark fell by 0.8%.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell to its lowest level in over two months on Thursday, closing at 4.28%, but quickly reversed course following Friday’s robust jobs report, climbing to 4.43%.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve contemplates whether to cut interest rates later this year, the European Central Bank approved its first rate reduction since 2019, citing progress in reducing inflationary pressures. The quarter-point cut will affect the 20 countries using the euro currency.

U.S. crude oil prices dropped below $73 per barrel on Tuesday, reaching a four-month low after a consortium of oil-producing countries announced a gradual phase-out of production cuts. By Friday, prices had recovered to over $75 per barrel but remained well below the recent high of nearly $88 in early April.

An index tracking U.S. small-cap stocks continued to underperform its large-cap counterpart, extending a recent trend. Since its recent high on May 15, the small-cap benchmark fell 3.7% as of Friday’s close, while the large-cap counterpart gained 0.3%.

The upcoming week includes a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting ending on Wednesday and the release of an inflation report that morning. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while the Consumer Price Index report will reveal how May’s annual inflation rate compares to April’s 3.4%.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMIMay51.350.0
Construction spendingApril-0.1%-0.2%
ISM manufacturingMay48.7%49.2%
Auto salesMay15.9 million15.8 million
Factory ordersApril0.7%0.7%
Job openingsApril8.1 million8.4 million
ADP employmentMay152,000188,000
S&P flash U.S. services PMIMay54.854.8
ISM servicesMay53.8%49.4%
Initial jobless claimsJune 1229,000221,000
U.S. productivity (final revision)Q10.2%0.3%
U.S. trade deficitApril-$74.6B-$68.4B
U.S. employment reportMay272,000165,000
U.S. unemployment rateMay3.9%
U.S. hourly wagesMay0.4%0.2%
Hourly wages year over year4.1%4.0%
Wholesale inventoriesApril0.1%-0.5%
Consumer creditApril$6.4B-$1.1B

Closing Prices for the Week

Dow Jones Industrials Average38,798.99
Nasdaq Composite17,133.13
S&P 500 Index5,346.99
CBOE Volatility Index12.22
S&P GSCI564.41
U.S. Dollar Index104.885
10-Year T-Note (Sep ’24)109-100
Crude Oil WTI (Jul ’24)75.53
Natural Gas (Jul ’24)2.918
Gold (Aug ’24)2,325.0
Silver (Jul ’24)29.440
Corn (Jul ’24)446-6
Wheat (Jul ’24)627-4
Soybean (Jul ’24)1179-2
Coffee (Sep ’24)224.90
Sugar #11 (Jul ’24)19.00
Cocoa (Jul ’24)9,933

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