The S&P 500 posted a minor weekly decline, while the NASDAQ saw a slight rise, with both indexes remaining near record-high levels in a quiet trading week. The Dow slipped and stayed about 2% below its record high set six weeks earlier.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure moved closer to the Fed’s long-term target of around 2.0%. Excluding energy and food prices, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in May, the slowest price growth in over three years.

The first half of 2024 showed uneven results across the U.S. equity market. By June 26, a single information technology sector stock accounted for approximately 30% of the S&P 500’s overall total return, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Moreover, just five tech-oriented stocks contributed more than half of the index’s year-to-date total return.

The S&P 500 advanced 3.5% in June, marking its seventh positive month out of the past eight. The NASDAQ outperformed with a nearly 6.0% gain, while the Dow lagged with a 1.1% increase.

Japan’s currency value relative to the U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since 1986 on Friday. The yen has depreciated steadily since the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate and yield curve control policies in March 2024.

At midyear 2024, an index measuring investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility was slightly below its year-end 2023 level and down 35% from its year-to-date high on April 15. Except for April, the Cboe Volatility Index has seen few significant movements, generally below its historical average.

Positive expectations surround the upcoming earnings season, starting mid-July with major banks reporting second-quarter results. As of June 21, analysts surveyed by FactSet anticipated an average earnings increase of 8.8% for S&P 500 companies compared to the same period last year, potentially marking the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth.

A monthly labor market report due Friday will reveal whether May’s job growth acceleration was an anomaly or the beginning of a trend. In May, the economy added 272,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, up from the 165,000 jobs added in April. May’s wage growth also exceeded expectations.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities)April7.2%7.4%
Consumer confidenceJune100.4101.3
New home salesMay619,000698,000
Initial jobless claimsJune 22233,000239,000
GDP (2nd revision)Q11.4%1.3%
Durable-goods ordersMay0.1%0.2%
Durable-goods minus transportationMay-0.1%0.4%
Pending home salesMay-2.1%-7.7%
Personal incomeMay0.5%0.3%
Personal spendingMay0.2%0.1%
PCE indexMay0.0%0.3%
PCE (year-over-year)2.6%2.7%
Core PCE indexMay0.1%0.3%
Core PCE (year-over-year)2.6%2.8%
Chicago Business Barometer (PMI)June47.435.4
Consumer sentiment (final)June68.265.6

Closing Prices for the Week

Dow Jones Industrials Average39,118.86
Nasdaq Composite17,732.60
S&P 500 Index5,460.48
CBOE Volatility Index12.44
S&P GSCI578.38
U.S. Dollar Index105.866
10-Year T-Note (Sep ’24)109-315
Crude Oil WTI (Aug ’24)81.54
Natural Gas (Aug ’24)2.601
Gold (Aug ’24)2,339.6
Silver (Sep ’24)29.560
Corn (Dec ’24)420-6
Wheat (Sep ’24)573-4
Soybean (Nov ’24)1104-0
Coffee (Sep ’24)226.80
Sugar #11 (Oct ’24)20.30
Cocoa (Sep ’24)7,731

Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

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