The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 pushed their record levels higher again, posting weekly total returns of 3.5% and 2.0%, respectively. For the NASDAQ, it was the tenth positive week out of the past eleven. The Dow gained 0.7% and remained 1.6% below its record set in mid-May.

June’s gain of 206,000 jobs exceeded economists’ consensus forecast for around 190,000, but a rise in unemployment to 4.1% left the jobless rate at the highest level since November 2021. Moreover, April’s and May’s initially reported jobs growth figures were revised downward by a total of 111,000, adding to the recent data indicating a modest slowdown in jobs growth.

Friday’s jobs report appeared to strengthen expectations of a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut later this year, as yields of government bonds fell. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury was about 4.28% at Friday’s close, down from 4.37% at the end of the previous week. Yields of 2-year and 30-year notes also declined.

Oil prices climbed for the fourth week to the highest level in more than two months, with U.S. crude trading above $83 per barrel on Friday afternoon. The latest gain came as a weekly report showed a decline in U.S. oil inventory, confirming recent forecasts from analysts who expect tight supplies throughout the summer.

An index that tracks U.S. small-cap stocks trailed a large-cap benchmark by a wide margin for the week, extending small-caps’ year-to-date underperformance. For the week, the Russell 2000 Index was down 1.0% at Friday’s close versus a 1.8% total return for its large-cap peer.

Companies in the S&P 500 modestly increased their dividend payments in this year’s second quarter as a handful of large-cap stocks began paying dividends for the first time. Companies in the S&P 500 paid out $153.4 billion in dividends, up more than 1% from $151.6 billion in this year’s first quarter, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for Thursday will show whether May’s stable inflation extended into June. The May CPI report showed an annual rate of 3.3%—better than economists’ consensus forecast for 3.4%, but unchanged from the prior month’s figure.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMIJune51.651.7
Construction spendingMay-0.1%0.3%
ISM manufacturingJune48.5%48.7%
U.S. job openingsMay8.1 million7.9 million
Auto salesJune15.2 million15.9 million
ADP employmentJune150,000157,000
Initial jobless claimsJune 29238,000234,000
U.S. trade deficitMay-$75.1B-$74.5B
S&P final U.S. services PMIJune55.355.1
Factory ordersMay-0.5%0.4%
ISM servicesJune48.8%53.8%
U.S. employment reportJune206,000218,000
U.S. unemployment rateJune4.1%4.0%
U.S. hourly wagesJune0.3%0.4%
Hourly wages year over year3.9%4.1%

Closing Prices for the Week

Dow Jones Industrials Average39,375.87
Nasdaq Composite18,352.76
S&P 500 Index5,567.19
CBOE Volatility Index12.48
S&P GSCI587.09
U.S. Dollar Index104.875
10-Year T-Note (Sep ’24)110-195
Crude Oil WTI (Aug ’24)83.16
Natural Gas (Aug ’24)2.319
Gold (Aug ’24)2,397.7
Silver (Sep ’24)31.689
Corn (Dec ’24)424-0
Wheat (Sep ’24)590-4
Soybean (Nov ’24)1129-6
Coffee (Sep ’24)228.95
Sugar #11 (Oct ’24)20.14
Cocoa (Sep ’24)7,850

Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

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