WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – JULY 5, 2024
The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 pushed their record levels higher again, posting weekly total returns of 3.5% and 2.0%, respectively. For the NASDAQ, it was the tenth positive week out of the past eleven. The Dow gained 0.7% and remained 1.6% below its record set in mid-May.
June’s gain of 206,000 jobs exceeded economists’ consensus forecast for around 190,000, but a rise in unemployment to 4.1% left the jobless rate at the highest level since November 2021. Moreover, April’s and May’s initially reported jobs growth figures were revised downward by a total of 111,000, adding to the recent data indicating a modest slowdown in jobs growth.
Friday’s jobs report appeared to strengthen expectations of a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut later this year, as yields of government bonds fell. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury was about 4.28% at Friday’s close, down from 4.37% at the end of the previous week. Yields of 2-year and 30-year notes also declined.
Oil prices climbed for the fourth week to the highest level in more than two months, with U.S. crude trading above $83 per barrel on Friday afternoon. The latest gain came as a weekly report showed a decline in U.S. oil inventory, confirming recent forecasts from analysts who expect tight supplies throughout the summer.
An index that tracks U.S. small-cap stocks trailed a large-cap benchmark by a wide margin for the week, extending small-caps’ year-to-date underperformance. For the week, the Russell 2000 Index was down 1.0% at Friday’s close versus a 1.8% total return for its large-cap peer.
Companies in the S&P 500 modestly increased their dividend payments in this year’s second quarter as a handful of large-cap stocks began paying dividends for the first time. Companies in the S&P 500 paid out $153.4 billion in dividends, up more than 1% from $151.6 billion in this year’s first quarter, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for Thursday will show whether May’s stable inflation extended into June. The May CPI report showed an annual rate of 3.3%—better than economists’ consensus forecast for 3.4%, but unchanged from the prior month’s figure.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI | June | 51.6 | 51.7 |
| Construction spending | May | -0.1% | 0.3% |
| ISM manufacturing | June | 48.5% | 48.7% |
| U.S. job openings | May | 8.1 million | 7.9 million |
| Auto sales | June | 15.2 million | 15.9 million |
| ADP employment | June | 150,000 | 157,000 |
| Initial jobless claims | June 29 | 238,000 | 234,000 |
| U.S. trade deficit | May | -$75.1B | -$74.5B |
| S&P final U.S. services PMI | June | 55.3 | 55.1 |
| Factory orders | May | -0.5% | 0.4% |
| ISM services | June | 48.8% | 53.8% |
| U.S. employment report | June | 206,000 | 218,000 |
| U.S. unemployment rate | June | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| U.S. hourly wages | June | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Hourly wages year over year | 3.9% | 4.1% |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 39,375.87 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 18,352.76 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,567.19 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 12.48 |
| S&P GSCI | 587.09 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 104.875 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Sep ’24) | 110-195 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Aug ’24) | 83.16 |
| Natural Gas (Aug ’24) | 2.319 |
| Gold (Aug ’24) | 2,397.7 |
| Silver (Sep ’24) | 31.689 |
| Corn (Dec ’24) | 424-0 |
| Wheat (Sep ’24) | 590-4 |
| Soybean (Nov ’24) | 1129-6 |
| Coffee (Sep ’24) | 228.95 |
| Sugar #11 (Oct ’24) | 20.14 |
| Cocoa (Sep ’24) | 7,850 |
Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.