Weekly Market Recap – June 26, 2020
In the Markets
After weeks of news stories dominated by better economic numbers and coverage of re-openings, along with the focus on developments surrounding the Black Lives Matter movement, the spotlight is on COVID-19 once again. On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal’s lead headline was “Virus Spread Accelerates Across U.S.” Also on Thursday, the Fed ordered banks to limit dividends and cease buybacks, warning that a lengthy downturn caused by the pandemic could burden them with distressed loans. The Labor Department reported that new jobless claims surpassed 1 million for the 14th consecutive week. New daily virus cases in the US increased to 44,726 as the week came to a close. For many investors, the spiking shape of the pandemic’s curve, no longer flattening, has become a proxy for the health of the the economy. Friday’s 25,015.55 DJIA close was its lowest since May 22nd. The weekly setback was 855.91 points (-3.3%). The S&P 500 lost 88.69 (-2.9%) trading 3,009.05 at the close. The NASDAQ Composite slipped 188.90 points (-1.9%); the final level of 9,757.22 is still in positive territory year-to-date (+8.7%). Of the indices we follow in our recap, the Russell 2000 is the weakest on the year, having lost 17.0%; its Friday settlement of 110.46 was off 3.0% for the week (-3.39 points).
London spot gold bullion traded at its highest price ($1,770.22) since October 1, 2012 ($1,780.50). August gold futures, ending the week at $1,780.30 (+1.6%), are up 15.6% for the year. Silver futures are unchanged for the year, as the front month futures settled at $18.035 per troy ounce (+1.1% for the week). Platinum declined $17.40 (-2.1%) to its $809.90 settlement, while palladium ended at $1,894.40 per ounce, easing $14.00 (-0.7%). Base metals continued firming slightly as copper rose 0.048 (+1.8%) to $2.659/lb. LME aluminum gained $9.50 (+0.6%) to $1,601.50 per metric ton.
Petroleum prices, in a steady uptrend since late April, are stalling a bit, as WTI declined $1.34 (-3.2%) settling at $38.49 for August delivery. Brent trailed off $1.17 for the week (-2.8%) ending the week at $41.02 per barrel. In terms of percentage, the products retreated more than the crude. July heating oil lost 6.2% from its $0.0751 loss, leaving it at $1.1363 on the close. RBOB gasoline fell 9.3% from the previous Friday, ending at $1.1533 from its loss of 11.83 cents per gallon. Natural gas futures for July have booked a string of seven new contract lows in the past two months. The week’s down move of $0.174 (-10.4%) printed a session low of $1.4320 before bouncing to its $1.4950 per MMBtu at the close.
In the ag sector, wheat ended the week at new contract lows, as July settled at $4.74 per bushel, down 7¼¢ (-1.5%). Corn, closing at $3.17 on Friday, lost 15½¢ (-4.7%) for the week. Soybeans went out at $8.65 after declining 11½¢ (-1.3%). Softs showed mixed action, with coffee coasting just above contract lows that were set last week. September futures were up 0.75 (+0.8%) from the previous Friday, and printed 96.65 at day’s end. Sugar is still bubbling under the 12¢ level, easing ½¢ (-4.1%) to its 11.55 settlement. Cocoa traced a two-day mini whipsaw, shooting up to 2,396 on Thursday, and then diving to 2,262 on Friday. For the week, it added 25 (+1.1%) closing at $2,277 per ton. For a moment, on Thursday, it looked as if July milk might be ending its bullish streak, but it recovered on Friday, keeping the upward channel intact on the chart. A 0.46 gain for the week (+2.2%) marked its 21.64 settlement, far above its 12.80 contract low two months ago. One additional instance of a contract low in our recap was in the livestock market on Friday. NASS released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report; and it showed record inventories. Gapping down more than 20¢ on the open, August hogs started the session at 48.975 and crashed to limit down (47.575). The market then worked its way up to 48.125 as the closing price. The weekly move was down 4.675 (-8.9%). Cattle fared much better, up 0.630 (+0.7%) for the week, registering 96.025 at settlement.
World Cup Trading Championships®
In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 11th week in a row with a 570.3% net return. Tim Hall held the 2nd spot with a net return of 308.7%. Yuwen Cao maintained 3rd with a net return of 245.7%. Stefan Seibert and Orhan Özcan rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 196.2% and 126.1% respectively.
In the Forex division, Raul Glavan held first at 112.2%, with Scott Welsh finishing the week in 2nd with a net return of 72.5%, followed by Robert Miner at 59.5% net. WenChen Zhang and Jan Smolen rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 50.6% and 47.7% respectively.
(Through May 29 – Final Results Pending Audit) The Top 5 Global Cup Finalists are Stefan Seibert in 1st at 210.7% net, Michael Cook in 2nd at 171.7% net, Maxim Schulz in 3rd at 156.2%, Robert Miner in 4th at 134.4%, and Wayne Wan in 5th at 113.2% net.
Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition. CME Group is the trademark of CME Group, Inc. The Globe logo is a trademark of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc.