Weekly Market Recap – July 2, 2020
In the Markets
After US employers added a record 4.8 million jobs in June, the national unemployment rate dropped to 11.1%. However, many states are reporting record increases in new Covid-19 cases and a growing death toll.
Our weekly recap includes a few noteworthy quarterly changes because the second quarter of 2020 ended on Wednesday. For the week, the DJIA rose 811.81 (+3.2%), closing at 25,827.36 on Thursday. The S&P 500 added 120.96 points, ending at 3,130.01 (+4.0%). The NASDAQ Composite, the only one of the four indices we cite that is up for the year (+13.8% YTD), closed at an all time high just before the three day holiday weekend; its weekly close of 10,207.63 was the result of its 450.41 advance (+4.6%); and the Russell 2000 gained 3.8% with a 4.22 increase for the week, taking it to 114.68 at the close.
The Q2 stats for these equities benchmarks were as follows: DJIA +17.8% (Q1 was -23.2%), S&P 500 +20.0% (coincidentally, it was down 20.0% in Q1), NASDAQ Composite +28.1% (Q1 had been -14.2%) and as for the Russell 2000, it rose 25.1% in Q2 (and had fallen by 30.8% in Q1).
Despite news about chaos in spot-to-futures spreads in precious metals, and rising physical deliveries for COMEX and NYMEX bullion contracts, there haven’t been any perceptible fireworks in the outright price movements lately. Silver futures have coasted sideways since making a three-and-a-half month high in early June. The September contract rose 15.4¢ last week to close at $18.322 (+0.8% for the week). August gold lagged silver, showing a rise of merely 0.5%; its Thursday settlement was $1,790.00 after adding $9.70 for the weekly change. Platinum and palladium futures both firmed: to $832.60 for the former and $1,927.60 for the latter. Their increases were $12.30 (+1.5%) and $33.20 (+1.8%), respectively. Base metals that we track in this recap have kept rising. COMEX copper went out at $2.7335/lb. (+2.85%), its highest weekly close since January 25th. LME aluminum closed the week 0.8% higher, $1,614 per metric ton at settlement.
Crude and product futures are also maintaining upward trends, though less constant than they showed in May and early June. August WTI is still toying with the $40 mark and poking in and out of the chart gap left by the March plunge, it closed at $40.65 per barrel, a $2.16 increase (+5.6%). In similar fashion, Brent added $2.21 (+5.4%), taking it to $43.14 at settlement. The economics of rising demand for refined products continue to support the futures prices. RBOB gasoline booked an 8.8% increase for the week (+10.23¢/gallon), printing $1.2592 at the close. Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel closed at $1.2311 and added 8.04¢/gallon to its price for the week, increasing 7.0% from the previous Friday. Natural gas has bounced from recent contract lows due to a heat wave and an unexpected inventory drop. August futures showed a weekly rise of 12.3%, up 19.0¢, closing at $1.734 per MMBtu.
The Q2 movement of the GSCI, the cash commodity index, was from 255.54 to 325.48 (+27.4%); it had fallen 41.4% in Q1 (from 436.21 to 255.54). Soybeans rallied 35½¢ last week (+4.1%) to close at $8.9675 per bushel. Corn rose 28¼¢ (+8.7%) to a $3.5350 settlement price. Wheat gained 16¼¢ (+3.4%) ending at $4.9200 for the week. In the ICE softs, the Europe vs. US coffee arbitrage is still gaining attention as Robusta increased by 4.0%, while Arabica added 6.8%, settling at $1,199 per metric ton and $1.0320 per pound, respectively. Sugar jumped 5.3%, gaining 0.62¢ to close at 12.24 ¢/pound. Cocoa decreased, ending Thursday’s session at 2,179 (-4.3%) losing 98 points. Livestock advanced with cattle outpacing hogs. August cattle rose 3.5% (+3.375) to a 99.40 close, while hogs ended at 49.200 with a 1.075 increase (2.2%), still not yet recovered from the previous week’s Hogs and Pigs Report.
World Cup Trading Championships®
In Futures, Michael O’Keeffe has held the top position, based on the end of week standings, for the 12th week in a row with a 549.1% net return. Orhan Özcan moved up to the 2nd spot with a net return of 250.6%. Yuwen Cao maintained 3rd with a net return of 224.5%. Stefan Seibert and Tim Hall rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 194.3% and 174.8% respectively.
In the Forex division, Raul Glavan held first at 114.4%, with Luca Angelucci finishing the week in 2nd with a net return of 85.5%, followed by Scott Welsh at 72.5% net. Robert Miner and Jan Smolen rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 63.9% and 58.2% respectively.
(Through May 29 – Final Results Pending Audit) The Top 5 Global Cup Finalists are Stefan Seibert in 1st at 210.7% net, Michael Cook in 2nd at 171.7% net, Maxim Schulz in 3rd at 156.2%, Robert Miner in 4th at 134.4%, and Wayne Wan in 5th at 113.2% net.
Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. World Cup Championship (WCC ) accounts do not necessarily represent all the trading accounts controlled by a given competitor. WCC competitors may control accounts that produce results substantially different than the results achieved in their WCC accounts. WCC entrants may trade more than one account in the competition. CME Group is the trademark of CME Group, Inc. The Globe logo is a trademark of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc.