Weekly Market Recap – July 21, 2023

As more earnings are released following the end of Q2, both the Dow and the S&P 500 have recorded their second consecutive weekly gains, while the NASDAQ concluded slightly down. By the end of the third week of Q3, 75% of S&P 500 companies had surpassed the quarterly net income predictions of analysts, as reported by FactSet.

On Friday, the Dow witnessed a small 0.01% gain, marking its 10th successive day of gains. This continual positive trend was mainly stimulated by robust quarterly earnings from several constituents of the 30-stock index, propelling the Dow to a total increase of more than 4% throughout its 10-day rally.

In the wake of substantial fluctuations in the first half of July, government bond yields stabilized in the previous week as investors set their sights on the upcoming Fed meeting ending on Wednesday. The market broadly anticipates the Fed to nudge its principal benchmark rate up by a quarter of a percent following a pause in its recent rate hikes.

Despite the NASDAQ significantly outperforming the Dow year-to-date, the tech-heavy NASDAQ experienced its steepest single-day percentage drop in over four months on Thursday. This was precipitated by disappointing earnings reports from two of the NASDAQ’s largest companies, leading to a more than 2% plunge for the day.

Multiple U.S. regional banks experienced a surge in share prices after their quarterly earnings surpassed predictions in light of recent bank collapses and withdrawal of deposits. Most major regional entities reported stable or increased deposits for the second quarter compared to the first, with a select few banks witnessing a more than 10% weekly jump in their share prices.

U.S. retail sales in June saw a modest increase of 0.2% from May, which fell short of the majority of economists’ projections. Nevertheless, the growth rate for the preceding month was revised upwards to 0.5% from an initial 0.3%, indicating the ongoing robustness of the retail sector amid easing inflation.

China’s second-quarter annual growth rate stood at 6.3%, which was significantly below economists’ predictions, further highlighting that China’s economic recovery post-pandemic has yet to meet expectations. Compared to the first quarter, GDP growth was slower at 0.8%, compared to a 2.2% quarterly growth rate in the initial three months of 2023.

On the upcoming Thursday, the U.S. government plans to announce its preliminary estimate of second-quarter economic growth. Despite earlier suggestions of a potential recession, most economists predict a modest GDP rise. This announcement follows the government’s upward revision last month of the first-quarter GDP growth rate to 2.0% from an initial estimate of 1.3%.


Major U.S. Economic Reports

Empire State manufacturing surveyJuly1.16.6
U.S. retail salesJune0.2%0.5%
Retail sales minus autosJune0.2%0.1%
Industrial productionJune-0.5%-0.5%
Capacity utilizationJune78.9%79.4%
Business inventoriesMay0.2%0.1%
Home builder confidence indexJuly5655
Housing startsJune1.43 million1.56 million
Building permitsJune1.44 million1.5 million
Initial jobless claimsJuly 15228,000237,000
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveyJune-13.5-13.7
Existing home salesJune4.2 million4.3 million
U.S. leading economic indicatorsJune-0.7%-0.6%

Closing Prices for the Week

Dow Jones Industrials Average35,227.69
Nasdaq Composite14,032.81
S&P 500 Index4,536.34
CBOE Volatility Index13.60
S&P GSCI574.72
U.S. Dollar Index101.071
10-Year T-Note (Sep ’23)112-075
Crude Oil WTI (Sep ’23)77.07
Natural Gas (Sep ’23)2.707
Gold (Aug ’23)1,966.6
Silver (Sep ’23)24.855
Corn (Dec ’23)536-2
Wheat (Sep ’23)697-4
Soybean (Nov ’23)1401-6
Coffee (Sep ’23)161.85
Sugar #11 (Oct ’23)25.01


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