Weekly Market Recap – July 14, 2023

The major U.S. stock indexes made a recovery of around 2% to 3%, surpassing their previous week’s losses and reaching the highest levels in 15 months. The NASDAQ had its strongest weekly performance in four months, with a gain of over 3%.

A report released midweek on U.S. inflation provided a boost to the stock market. The government’s Consumer Price Index dropped to an annual rate of 3.0% in June, the lowest level since March 2021. This marked a steady decline from the peak of 9.1% seen in June 2022. Additionally, a separate report showed a decrease in inflationary pressures at the wholesale level.

The latest inflation data alleviated concerns about the pace of future interest-rate increases, leading to a reversal of the sharp rise in government bond yields observed the previous week. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased from 4.05% at the end of the previous week to 3.82% on Friday. The yield of the 2-year note fell from 4.94% to 4.73%.

Earnings season began in full swing on Friday, with three major U.S. banks reporting second-quarter results that exceeded analysts’ expectations for both net income and revenue. However, analysts were forecasting an overall average decline of 7.1% in earnings for all companies in the S&P 500, as of Friday, according to FactSet.

An indicator tracking U.S. consumer sentiment reached its highest level since September 2021. The preliminary reading from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday showed a substantial increase of 13% from the previous month, surpassing economists’ expectations.

Oil prices continued their upward trend for the third consecutive week, with U.S. crude reaching as high as $77 per barrel on Friday morning before settling around $75. This was an increase from the recent low of approximately $68 observed on June 27.

The index measuring investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility experienced a decline of about 10% during the week. Following the increase in the previous week, the Cboe Volatility Index retreated to a level slightly above the multi-year low it reached on June 22.

A report on U.S. retail sales scheduled for release on Tuesday will provide insight into whether the positive momentum seen in April and May extended into June. Despite inflationary pressures, there was a 0.3% increase in month-over-month retail sales in May, following a 0.4% rise in April. Retail sales had been trending negatively as recently as March.


Major U.S. Economic Reports

Wholesale inventoriesMay0.0%-0.3%
Consumer creditMay$7.2B$20.3B
NFIB optimism indexJune9189.4
Consumer price indexJune0.2%0.1%
Core CPIJune0.2%0.4%
CPI year over year3.0%4.0%
Core CPI year over year4.8%5.3%
Initial jobless claimsJuly 8237,000249,000
Producer price indexJune0.1%-0.3%
Core PPIJune0.1%0.0%
PPI year over year0.1%1.1%
Core PPI year over year2.6%2.8%
Federal budgetJune-$228B-$89B
Import price indexJune-0.2%-0.6%
Import price index minus fuelJune-0.4%-0.1%
Consumer sentimentJuly (prelim)72.664.4

Closing Prices for the Week

Dow Jones Industrials Average34,509.03
Nasdaq Composite14,113.70
S&P 500 Index4,505.42
CBOE Volatility Index13.34
S&P GSCI562.51
U.S. Dollar Index99.914
10-Year T-Note (Sep ’23)112-180
Crude Oil WTI (Aug ’23)75.42
Natural Gas (Sep ’23)2.530
Gold (Aug ’23)1,964.4
Silver (Sep ’23)25.194
Corn (Dec ’23)513-6
Wheat (Sep ’23)661-4
Soybean (Nov ’23)1370-6
Coffee (Sep ’23)160.80
Sugar #11 (Oct ’23)24.32


Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

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