WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – JANUARY 31, 2025
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ declined by 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively, while the Dow posted a slight gain in a week that started on uncertain footing. On Monday, technology stocks dragged the broader market lower following reports that a Chinese startup posed a competitive threat to U.S. tech companies’ AI initiatives.
Despite the week’s volatility, the major U.S. stock indexes ended January with positive results, rebounding after the S&P 500 and Dow recorded losses in December. For the month, the Dow rose over 4%, the S&P 500 gained nearly 3%, and the NASDAQ climbed close to 2%.
The U.S. economy maintained steady growth through late 2024, though fourth-quarter GDP slightly missed economists’ expectations. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.3% for the quarter, bringing the full-year growth rate to 2.8%, just below 2023’s 2.9% figure.
Corporate earnings surpassed analyst expectations, tracking toward the fastest quarterly growth rate in three years. As of Friday, fourth-quarter net income was projected to rise 13.2% compared to the same period last year—higher than the 11.8% estimate before earnings season began.
As widely anticipated, the U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady after its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank implemented its fifth consecutive rate cut on Thursday.
Gold prices climbed more than 1% for the week, reaching a new record high. On Friday, gold traded above $2,800 per ounce for the first time, hitting an afternoon price of approximately $2,830—up from just over $2,000 a year ago.
Inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% long-term target, according to Friday’s reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. In December, PCE inflation rose at an annual rate of 2.6%, up from 2.4% the prior month. Core PCE, which excludes energy and food prices, held steady at 2.8%.
A monthly jobs report set for release on Friday will reveal whether the labor market’s recent strength continued into January. The economy added 212,000 jobs in November, followed by 256,000 in December. In contrast, October saw a modest gain of just 43,000 jobs.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| New home sales | Dec. | 698,000 | 674,000 |
| Durable-goods orders | Dec. | -2.2% | -2% |
| Durable-goods minus transportation | Dec. | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) | Nov. | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| Consumer confidence | Jan. | 104.1 | 109.5 |
| Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods | Dec. | $122.1B | -$103.5B |
| Advanced retail inventories | Dec. | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Advanced wholesale inventories | Dec. | -0.5% | -0.1% |
| GDP | Q4 | 2.3% | 3.1% |
| Initial jobless claims | Jan. 25 | 207,000 | 223,000 |
| Pending home sales | Dec. | -5.5% | 1.6% |
| Employment cost index | Q4 | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Personal income (nominal) | Dec. | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Personal spending (nominal) | Dec. | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| PCE index | Dec. | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| PCE (year-over-year) | 2.6% | 2.5% | |
| Core PCE index | Dec. | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Core PCE (year-over-year) | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) | Jan. | 39.5 | 36.9 |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 44,544.66 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 19,627.44 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,040.53 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 16.43 |
| S&P GSCI | 561.91 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 108.370 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Mar ’25) | 108-270 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Mar ’25) | 72.53 |
| Natural Gas (Mar ’25) | 3.044 |
| Gold (Apr ’25) | 2,835.0 |
| Silver (Mar ’25) | 32.265 |
| Corn (Mar ’25) | 482-0 |
| Wheat (Mar ’25) | 559-4 |
| Soybean (Mar ’25) | 1042-0 |
| Coffee (Mar ’25) | 377.85 |
| Sugar #11 (Mar ’25) | 19.35 |
| Cocoa (May ’25) | 10,855 |
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