WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – FEBRUARY 7, 2025
U.S. stocks declined at the start of the week due to newly imposed tariffs and ensuing trade negotiations involving the United States, Canada, Mexico, and China. However, markets regained some ground as certain tariffs were temporarily eased, leading to only fractional declines for the week.
January’s job growth of 143,000 fell short of analysts’ expectations and marked a slowdown from the previous month. Despite this, the report had positive aspects—job gains for November and December were revised upward by a combined 100,000, and the unemployment rate edged down from 4.1% to 4.0%.
More than halfway through earnings season, corporate results continued to outpace analyst projections. As of Friday, fourth-quarter earnings were expected to grow 16.4% compared to the same period a year ago, exceeding the pre-season forecast of 11.8%, according to FactSet.
Gold prices hit a record high for the second consecutive week, extending a nearly three-month rally. On Friday, gold briefly surpassed $2,900 per ounce before settling around $2,890 in the afternoon. A year ago, it was trading just above $2,000.
U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a seven-month low in February as survey participants voiced concerns that tariffs could contribute to short-term inflation. The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index dropped 3.3 points to 67.8, missing economists’ expectations.
Crude oil prices declined for the third consecutive week, pressured by escalating trade tensions and concerns over potential weakening demand. By Friday afternoon, U.S. crude was trading at approximately $71 per barrel, down from a recent high of around $80 on January 15.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note also fell for the third time in four weeks as investors reassessed inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy. By Friday’s close, the yield stood at around 4.49%, down from its January 13 peak of 4.80%.
A Consumer Price Index report set for release on Wednesday will indicate whether the recent trend of slightly stronger-than-expected inflation persisted into January. December’s CPI data showed annual core inflation at 3.2%, excluding volatile food and energy prices—highlighting the uneven progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% long-term target.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI | Jan. | 51.2 | 50.1 |
| Construction spending | Dec. | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| ISM manufacturing | Jan. | 50.9% | 49.2% |
| Auto sales | Jan. | 15.6 million | 16.9 million |
| Job openings | Dec. | 7.6 million | 8.2 million |
| Factory orders | Dec. | -0.9% | -0.8% |
| ADP employment | Jan. | 183,000 | 176,000 |
| U.S. trade deficit | Dec. | $98.40 | -$78.9B |
| S&P final U.S. services PMI | Jan. | 52.9 | 52.8 |
| ISM services | Jan. | 52.8% | 54.1% |
| Initial jobless claims | Feb. 1 | 219,000 | 208,000 |
| U.S. productivity | Q4 | 1.2% | 2.3% |
| U.S. employment report | Jan. | 143,000 | 307,000 |
| U.S. unemployment rate | Jan. | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| U.S. hourly wages | Jan. | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Hourly wages year over year | 4.1% | 4.0% | |
| Wholesale inventories | Dec. | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| Consumer sentiment (prelim) | Feb. | 67.8 | 71.1 |
| Consumer credit | Dec. | $40.8B | -$5.4B |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 44,303.40 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 19,523.40 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,025.99 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 16.54 |
| S&P GSCI | 563.23 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 108.040 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Mar ’25) | 109-075 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Mar ’25) | 71.00 |
| Natural Gas (Mar ’25) | 3.309 |
| Gold (Apr ’25) | 2,887.6 |
| Silver (Mar ’25) | 32.443 |
| Corn (Mar ’25) | 487-4 |
| Wheat (Mar ’25) | 582-6 |
| Soybean (Mar ’25) | 1049-4 |
| Coffee (May ’25) | 396.70 |
| Sugar #11 (Mar ’25) | 19.36 |
| Cocoa (May ’25) | 10,113 |
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