WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – JANUARY 17, 2025
After a sluggish start to the week, U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday and Friday, pushing the major indexes to weekly gains of 2% to 4%. This marked only the second positive week in the past six for the S&P 500, which ended Friday less than 2% below its record high from December 6.
Yields on U.S. government debt declined, retreating from their highest levels in over 14 months and halting a surge that began last September. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at approximately 4.61% on Friday, down from 4.77% the previous week.
Earnings reports from major U.S. banks exceeded lofty market expectations, with three institutions reporting that their fourth-quarter earnings more than doubled compared to a year earlier. Ahead of earnings season, analysts had projected nearly 40% growth in financial sector earnings—the highest forecast among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors, according to FactSet.
Stocks gained further and bond yields fell on Wednesday after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated a cooling in inflationary pressures. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at an annual rate of 3.2% in December—slightly below November’s rate and economists’ expectations of 3.3%.
U.S. retail sales rose by 0.4% in December, falling short of economists’ forecast of 0.6%. However, the report offered a bright spot as November’s previously reported 0.7% sales increase was revised upward to 0.8%.
China, the world’s second-largest economy, grew at an annual rate of 5.4% in the fourth quarter, surpassing economists’ expectations and improving from 4.6% in the third quarter. For the full year 2024, China’s economy expanded by 5.0%, meeting the government’s growth target.
In contrast, Germany’s economy contracted for the second consecutive year, with GDP shrinking by 0.2% in 2024 following a 0.3% decline in 2023. The downturn was driven by sluggish consumer spending and intense competition facing the country’s automotive industry.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| NFIB optimism index | Dec. | 105.1 | 101.7 |
| Producer price index | Dec. | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Core PPI | Dec. | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| PPI year over year | 3.3% | 3.0% | |
| Core PPI year over year | 3.3% | 3.5% | |
| Monthly U.S. federal budget | Dec. | -$87B | -$129B |
| Consumer price index | Dec. | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| CPI year over year | 2.9% | 2.7% | |
| Core CPI | Dec. | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Core CPI year over year | 3.2% | 3.3% | |
| Empire State manufacturing survey | Jan. | -12.6 | 2.1 |
| Initial jobless claims | Jan. 11 | 217,000 | 203,000 |
| U.S. retail sales | Dec. | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Retail sales minus autos | Dec. | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Import price index | Dec. | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Import price index minus fuel | Dec. | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey | Jan. | 44.3 | -10.9 |
| Business inventories | Nov. | 0.10% | 0.0% |
| Home builder confidence index | Jan. | 47 | 46 |
| Housing starts | Dec. | 1.5 million | 1.29 million |
| Building permits | Dec. | 1.48 million | 1.53 million |
| Industrial production | Dec. | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Capacity utilization | Dec. | 77.6% | 77.0% |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 43,487.83 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 19,630.20 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,996.66 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 15.97 |
| S&P GSCI | 577.95 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 109.347 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Mar ’25) | 108-175 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Mar ’25) | 77.39 |
| Natural Gas (Mar ’25) | 3.479 |
| Gold (Feb ’25) | 2,748.7 |
| Silver (Mar ’25) | 31.141 |
| Corn (Mar ’25) | 484-2 |
| Wheat (Mar ’25) | 538-6 |
| Soybean (Mar ’25) | 1034-0 |
| Coffee (Mar ’25) | 328.35 |
| Sugar #11 (Mar ’25) | 18.22 |
| Cocoa (Mar ’25) | 11,173 |
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