WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – JANUARY 10, 2025

Major U.S. stock indexes fell around 2% last week, marking their second consecutive weekly decline as investors grew concerned about a potential slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 recorded its fourth negative week out of five, ending more than 4% below its record high from December 6.

Following Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to its highest level in over 14 months, reaching 4.79% before closing at 4.77%. The sharp increase reflects rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may approve only one rate cut this year.

The U.S. labor market showed continued strength in December, with job growth of 256,000—exceeding economists’ forecasts by roughly 100,000. For 2024, the labor market averaged 186,000 new jobs per month. Additionally, December’s unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in November.

As major banks prepare to report earnings, analysts anticipate that fourth-quarter earnings per share for S&P 500 companies will increase by an average of 11.7%, according to FactSet. However, 71 companies recently lowered their earnings forecasts, compared to 35 issuing positive guidance.

U.S. crude oil prices climbed for the third straight week, closing near $77 on Friday, reflecting a 10% increase over the period. Gold futures also rose for the second consecutive week, reaching approximately $2,717—just 3% below their record high from two and a half months ago.

In the UK, government bond yields spiked to multi-decade highs amid concerns about rising borrowing and economic weakness. On Thursday, the 30-year gilt yield surpassed 5.45%, the highest since 1998, while the 10-year gilt yield climbed to 4.92%, the highest since 2008.

Dividend payments by S&P 500 companies increased in 2024, with the net indicated dividend rate—measuring dividend hikes minus cuts—rising to $53.3 billion from $36.5 billion in 2023, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Overall dividend payments are projected to grow by 8% in 2025 compared to 2024.

On Wednesday, the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will indicate whether inflation remained slightly above expectations in December. November’s annual CPI rate was 2.7%, up from 2.6% in October, signaling uneven progress in aligning inflation with the Fed’s 2.0% target.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

ReportPeriodActualPrevious
S&P final U.S. services PMIDec.56.856.1
Factory ordersNov.-0.4%0.5%
U.S. trade deficitNov.-$78.2B-$73.6B
ISM servicesDec.54.1%52.1%
Job openingsNov.8.1 million7.8 million
ADP employmentDec.122,000146,000
Initial jobless claimsJan. 4201,000211,000
Wholesale inventoriesNov.-0.2%0.2%
Consumer creditDec.-$7.5B$17.3B
U.S. employment reportDec.256,000212,000
U.S. unemployment rateDec.4.1%4.2%
U.S. hourly wagesDec.0.3%0.4%
Hourly wages year over year3.9%4.0%
UMich consumer sentiment (prelim)Jan.73.274.0

Closing Prices for the Week

ContractClose
Dow Jones Industrials Average41,938.45
Nasdaq Composite19,161.63
S&P 500 Index5,827.04
CBOE Volatility Index19.54
S&P GSCI570.97
U.S. Dollar Index109.650
10-Year T-Note (Mar ’25)107-125
Crude Oil WTI (Mar ’25)75.75
Natural Gas (Mar ’25)3.398
Gold (Feb ’25)2,715.0
Silver (Mar ’25)31.314
Corn (Mar ’25)470-4
Wheat (Mar ’25)530-6
Soybean (Mar ’25)1025-2
Coffee (Mar ’25)323.85
Sugar #11 (Mar ’25)19.22
Cocoa (Mar ’25)10,570

Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

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