Weekly Market Recap – February 11, 2022
Tensions over Ukraine have continued to rise as Russia has increased its military presence in Belarus. A Canadian judge has ordered an end to the blockade at the Ambassador Bridge border crossing by truckers protesting COVID-19 mandates; the demonstration is impacting an estimated $400 million per day in import/export transactions. The Biden administration indicated it would scale back Trump-era tariffs on Japanese steel.
Data released on Thursday for the consumer price index indicates the largest (+7.5% vs. 7.0%) annual CPI rise since 1982. Other statistical economic data, compared with previous levels, were as follows: consumer credit $19 billion vs. $39 billion, the trade balance (deficit) was -$80.7 billion vs. -$79.3 billion, and a revision in wholesale inventories showed a 2.2% increase in December vs. November’s 2.5%. For the first time since the pandemic began, the federal budget had a surplus (+$119 billion in January vs. -$163 billion in December). Weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000 vs. 239,000.
The yield on the 10-year T-Note topped 2.0% for the first time since July 2019. Falling prices in tech and communication shares pressured equities. All three stock indices that we monitor declined for the week. The NASDAQ Composite had a 2.2% down-move to 13,791.15. The S&P 500 closed at 4,418.64 (-1.8%), and the DJIA lost only 1.0%, ending at 34,738.06 Friday. A rising CBOE VIX accompanied the sell-off in stocks; the volatility benchmark jumped 17.8% to 27.36 at the close. The U.S Dollar Index firmed up to 96.03 with a 0.6% gain. S&P’s GSCI inched up to 643.08 (+0.01%).
Metal futures were mixed. Closing prices and percentage movements were as follows: gold at $1,842.10 (+1.9%), silver at $23.369 (+4.0%), platinum at $1,018.70 (-0.5%), palladium at $2,193.60 (-4.2%), copper at $4.5060 (+0.4%) and aluminum at $3,136.50 (+2.0%).
On the energy charts, the petroleum sector futures we track continued making new contract highs. For the week, NYMEX WTI rose to $93.10 per barrel, up 0.9%. ICE Brent rallied to 94.44 (+1.3%). Heating oil gained 1.2%, closing the week at $2.9109, and RBOB gasoline added 2.2% to $2.7386 per gallon. Natural gas moved sharply lower, as the front-month delivery price tumbled to $3.941 per mmBtu (-13.8%). Warmer than normal forecasts have continued for the northeast and Midwest.
Of the agricultural products covered in our recap, two decreased and seven increased. The negative moves were in cotton and live cattle. The former closed at 125.28¢ (-1.2%) and the latter settled at 146.175 (-0.5%). The winners were: soybeans at $15.83 (+1.9%), corn at $6.51 (+4.9%), wheat at $7.97¾ (+4.5%), coffee at $2.5165 (+4.1%), sugar at 18.26¢ (+0.2%), cocoa at $2,766 (+3.7%), and lean hogs, continuing to make new contract highs, ended the week at 102.225 (+2.1%).
Futures Referenced in Market Recap
|NYMEX||ULSD (Heating Oil)||March|
|LME||Aluminum||3 Mo. Forward|
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