WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – NOVEMBER 14, 2025
Uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence prospects and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook kept U.S. markets on edge last week. Stocks rallied early in the week but reversed course after Thursday’s sell-off. The S&P 500 and Dow ended fractionally higher, while the NASDAQ finished slightly lower.
In the bond market, traders scaled back expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting on December 10. As of Friday afternoon, futures pricing reflected a 46% probability of a quarter-point cut, down from nearly 70% just a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch.
The resolution of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown midweek is expected to clear the backlog of delayed economic data eventually. However, uncertainty remains over the timing, completeness, and scope of pending reports. Under a revised schedule, the September employment report is set to be released on Thursday, November 20, while other delayed data have not yet been rescheduled as of Friday.
Despite the prolonged shutdown, financial markets showed resilience. The S&P 500’s closing level on Wednesday—the final day of the shutdown—stood 2.4% higher than its pre-shutdown level on September 30. Treasury yields remained relatively stable, with the 10-year note yielding 4.07% on Wednesday compared with 4.15% before the shutdown began.
Earnings season is nearly complete, and results have continued to exceed expectations. According to FactSet, S&P 500 companies’ third-quarter earnings are projected to have risen 13.1% year over year, compared with an 8.0% growth forecast at the start of the season.
Reduced expectations for a December rate cut pressured government bond prices, pushing yields higher across the curve. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.15% on Friday from 4.09% a week earlier, while 2-year and 30-year yields also posted gains.
Market volatility fluctuated sharply on Friday. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 23.0 in the morning before retreating below 20.0 midday, closing at 19.8—up about 4% for the week.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| NFIB optimism index | Oct. | 98.2 | 98.8 |
| Initial jobless claims | Nov. 8 | NA | |
| Consumer price index | Oct. | NA | |
| CPI year over year | Oct. | NA | |
| Core CPI | Oct. | NA | |
| Core CPI year over year | NA | ||
| Monthly U.S. federal budget | $257.5B | ||
| U.S. retail sales | NA | ||
| Retail sales minus autos | NA | ||
| Producer price index | NA | ||
| Core PPI | NA | ||
| PPI year over year | NA | ||
| Core PPI year over year | NA | ||
| Business inventories | NA |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 47,147.48 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,900.59 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,734.11 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 19.83 |
| S&P GSCI | 559.28 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 99.299 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Dec ’25) | 112-170 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Jan ’26) | 59.95 |
| Natural Gas (Dec ’25) | 4.566 |
| Gold (Dec ’25) | 4,094.2 |
| Silver (Dec ’25) | 50.686 |
| Corn (Dec ’25) | 430-2 |
| Wheat (Mar ’26) | 541-4 |
| Soybean (Jan ’26) | 1124-4 |
| Coffee (Mar ’26) | 374.00 |
| Sugar #11 (Mar ’26) | 14.96 |
| Cocoa (Mar ’26) | 5,457 |
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