WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – OCTOBER 3, 2025
All three major U.S. stock indexes advanced more than 1% for the week, recovering from the prior week’s mild decline. The S&P 500 notched modest daily gains of 0.4% or less throughout the trading week, gradually lifting the benchmark to new record highs.
A partial U.S. government shutdown began on Wednesday after lawmakers failed to reach a funding agreement. The halt suspended several federal operations, including the collection and release of key economic data used by investors and Federal Reserve policymakers to assess economic conditions. Among the most notable omissions was the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment report, which was not published on Friday.
With government data temporarily unavailable, investors turned to private-sector sources for insight. Payroll processor ADP reported on Wednesday that U.S. private-sector employment fell by 32,000 in September, extending a recent pattern of weak labor market figures.
September capped another strong month for equities, as the S&P 500 gained 3.5%, bringing its third-quarter advance to 7.8%. The NASDAQ led the major indexes with a 5.6% monthly rise, while the Dow added 1.9%.
Gold rallied in the early days of the shutdown. It extended its winning streak to a seventh week, with futures prices reaching a record above $3,900 per ounce, up nearly 3%.
In contrast, oil prices declined sharply on concerns of potential global oversupply. U.S. crude futures dropped around 7% for the week to about $61 per barrel—the lowest level in more than four months—down from roughly $75 in mid-June.
Market volatility ticked higher but remained relatively subdued. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) closed Friday at 16.7, up from 15.3 a week earlier, yet well below its year-to-date peak of 52.3 recorded on April 8.
Looking ahead, major U.S. banks will kick off earnings season in mid-October. Analysts surveyed by FactSet project S&P 500 companies to report third-quarter earnings growth averaging about 8%, which would mark the ninth straight quarter of year-over-year profit expansion.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| Pending home sales | Aug. | 4.0% | -0.3% |
| S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) | July | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) | Sept. | 40.6 | 41.5 |
| Job openings | Aug. | 7.2 million | 7.2 million |
| Consumer confidence | Sept. | 94.2 | 97.4 |
| ADP employment | Sept. | -32,000 | -3,000 |
| S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI | Sept. | 52.0 | 52.0 |
| Construction spending/delayed* | Aug. | — | -0.1% |
| ISM manufacturing | Sept. | 49.1% | 48.7% |
| Auto sales | Sept. | 16.4 million | 16.1 million |
| Initial jobless claims/delayed* | Sept. 27 | — | 218,000 |
| Factory orders/delayed* | Aug. | — | -1.3% |
| U.S. employment report/delayed* | Sept. | — | 22,000 |
| U.S. unemployment rate/delayed* | Sept. | — | 4.3% |
| U.S. hourly wages/delayed* | Sept. | — | 0.3% |
| Hourly wages year over year /delayed* | — | 3.7% | |
| S&P final U.S. services PMI | Sept. | 54.2 | 53.9 |
| ISM services | Sept. | 50% | 52% |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 46,758.28 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,780.51 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,715.79 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 16.65 |
| S&P GSCI | 546.25 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 97.723 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Dec ’25) | 112-215 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Nov ’25) | 60.88 |
| Natural Gas (Nov ’25) | 3.324 |
| Gold (Dec ’25) | 3,908.9 |
| Silver (Dec ’25) | 47.965 |
| Corn (Dec ’25) | 419-0 |
| Wheat (Dec ’25) | 515-2 |
| Soybean (Nov ’25) | 1018-0 |
| Coffee (Dec ’25) | 390.75 |
| Sugar #11 (Mar ’26) | 16.47 |
| Cocoa (Dec ’25) | 6,190 |
Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.