WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – SEPTEMBER 20, 2024
On Monday, the Dow surpassed a record high set in mid-July, followed by the S&P 500 on Thursday, both boosted by the first interest-rate cut since March 2020. Each major index gained around 1.5% for the week, with the NASDAQ now approximately 4% below its all-time high.
As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its key lending rate on Wednesday, opting for a 50-basis-point (0.50%) reduction rather than the more modest 25-point cut some had anticipated. The decision, supported by 11 of 12 Fed voting members, lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%, with further cuts anticipated at the Fed’s meetings in early November and mid-December.
The stock market saw its biggest surge on Thursday, the day after the Fed’s rate cut, with the NASDAQ jumping 2.5%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.7%, and the Dow climbing 1.3%. In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.73% on Friday—up for the week but significantly lower than its year-to-date peak of 4.70% in late April.
U.S. retail sales for August slightly exceeded economists’ expectations, rising 0.1%, while July’s figure was revised up to 1.1% from the initially reported 1.0%.
A key bond market indicator, often viewed as a recession signal, no longer suggests a heightened risk of economic downturn. Since mid-2022, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield had been higher than the 10-year yield in a rare yield curve inversion. However, on September 4, the 2-year yield fell back below the 10-year, with Friday’s closing yields at 3.58% for the 2-year and 3.73% for the 10-year.
An upcoming report on Friday will reveal whether inflationary pressures continued to ease in August. The last report, covering July, showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 2.6% annually, excluding energy and food prices.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| Empire State manufacturing survey | Sept. | 11.5 | -4.7 |
| U.S. retail sales | Aug. | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| Retail sales minus autos | Aug. | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Industrial production | Aug. | 0.8 | -0.9% |
| Capacity utilization | Aug. | 78.0% | 77.8% |
| Business inventories | July | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Home builder confidence index | Sept. | 41 | 39 |
| Housing starts | Aug. | 1.36 million | 1.24 million |
| Building permits | Aug. | 1.48 million | 1.41 million |
| Initial jobless claims | Sept. 14 | 219,000 | 231,000 |
| Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey | Sept. | 1.7 | -7.0 |
| Existing home sales | Aug. | 3.86 million | 3.96 million |
| U.S. leading economic indicators | Aug. | -0.2% | -0.6% |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 42,063.36 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 17,948.32 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,702.55 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 16.15 |
| S&P GSCI | 533.40 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 100.723 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Dec ’24) | 114-270 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Nov ’24) | 71.00 |
| Natural Gas (Nov ’24) | 2.719 |
| Gold (Dec ’24) | 2,646.2 |
| Silver (Dec ’24) | 31.505 |
| Corn (Dec ’24) | 401-6 |
| Wheat (Dec ’24) | 568-4 |
| Soybean (Nov ’24) | 1012-0 |
| Coffee (Dec ’24) | 250.75 |
| Sugar #11 (Mar ’25) | 22.74 |
| Cocoa (Dec ’24) | 7,658 |
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