Weekly Market Recap – September 15, 2023

Throughout the week, the primary U.S. stock indices exhibited minimal fluctuations, maintaining a relatively stable trajectory. This trend aligns with the market’s predominantly stagnant behavior throughout the summer, with a less than 5% disparity between the highest and lowest points of the S&P 500 since the end of June.

In August, the principal gauge of U.S. inflation escalated at its most rapid rate since the middle of 2022, with the Consumer Price Index ascending by 3.7% annually and 0.6% on a monthly scale. This surge was primarily propelled by a rise in energy costs; however, when disregarding energy and food expenses, the core inflation experienced a slight increment of 0.3% month-over-month.

The index monitoring short-term volatility expectations in the U.S. equity market experienced a decline on Thursday, reaching its nadir since the end of 2019, prior to the pandemic-induced surge in the Cboe Volatility Index. Despite a minor increase on Friday, the VIX has diminished by approximately 36% since the beginning of the year.

U.S. crude oil prices have been on an upward trajectory, marking the third consecutive week of growth and surpassing $90 per barrel on Thursday, a pinnacle not seen since the previous November. This escalation, amounting to roughly 14% over the last three weeks, has been spurred by emerging concerns over oil supply.

The European Central Bank, in a bid to curb soaring inflation, elevated interest rates once more on Thursday. This adjustment, observed in ten successive policy meetings, has propelled the bank’s primary rates to their zenith since 1999.

The prospect of additional hikes in interest rates has been exerting pressure on U.S. government bond values. Consequently, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed the 5.00% threshold, a mark previously reached in late August, while the 10-year Treasury yield approached its annual peak at about 4.33% on Friday.

Following a period of unfavorable data concerning the Chinese economy, recent statistics unveiled on Friday indicate a positive shift in factory production and retail sales during August. Both indicators exhibited accelerated growth compared to July, with a 4.5% year-over-year increase in industrial production and a 4.6% rise in retail sales.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the current benchmark interest rate during its two-day policy assembly, which concludes on Wednesday. In its last session in late July, the Fed sanctioned a quarter-percentage point augmentation, setting the rate within a 5.25% to 5.50% bracket, marking the eleventh adjustment since March 2022.


Major U.S. Economic Reports

NFIB optimism indexAug91.391.9
Consumer price indexAug0.6%0.2%
Core CPIAug0.3%0.2%
CPI (year-over-year)3.7%3.2%
Core CPI (year-over-year)4.3%4.7%
U.S. federal budgetAug$89B-$220B
Initial jobless claimsSept. 9220,000216,000
Producer price indexAug0.7%0.3%
Core PPIAug0.4%0.2%
PPI (year-over-year)0.8%
Core PPI (year-over-year)2.7%
U.S. retail salesAug0.6%0.5%
Retail sales minus autosAug0.6%0.7%
Business inventoriesJuly0.0%0.0%
U.S. import pricesAug0.5%0.4%
Empire State manufacturing surveySept1.9-19
Industrial productionAug0.4%0.7%
Capacity utilizationAug79.7%79.5%
Consumer sentiment (prelim)Aug67.769.5


Closing Prices for the Week

Dow Jones Industrials Average34,618.24
Nasdaq Composite13,708.33
S&P 500 Index4,450.32
CBOE Volatility Index13.79
S&P GSCI618.05
U.S. Dollar Index105.322
10-Year T-Note (Dec ’23)109-165
Crude Oil WTI (Oct ’23)90.77
Natural Gas (Oct ’23)2.644
Gold (Dec ’23)1,946.2
Silver (Dec ’23)23.386
Corn (Dec ’23)476-2
Wheat (Dec ’23)604-2
Soybean (Nov ’23)1340-2
Coffee (Dec ’23)159.15
Sugar #11 (Mar ’23)22.08


Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

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