WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – October 9, 2026

A strong start to the week pushed the S&P 500 and NASDAQ to record highs on Tuesday. Neither index managed to extend those gains to new highs over the remainder of the week, but both finished approximately 1% higher. The Dow also posted a gain of around 1%.

Following recent volatility in the bond market, yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries edged lower overall for the week but remained near their highest levels in more than two decades. At Friday’s close, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.24%, while the 30-year yield was 5.60%. The 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.79%, down from 4.84% the previous week.

Wall Street analysts remained optimistic as major U.S. banks prepared to kick off the quarterly earnings season. As of Friday, analysts surveyed by FactSet expected S&P 500 companies to report average third-quarter earnings growth of 29.6%. If realized, that would mark the third consecutive quarter in which earnings growth exceeded 25%.

Oil prices remained within a relatively narrow range for the second consecutive week, a notable departure from the volatility that followed escalating tensions in the Middle East in March and April. On Friday afternoon, U.S. crude traded at approximately $91.50 per barrel, fractionally higher than a week earlier. In mid-September, prices had reached as high as $105, while the early-April peak was around $115.

Minutes released Wednesday from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting indicated that policymakers were considering another interest rate increase before the end of the year, although the timing remained uncertain. At its mid-September meeting, the Fed raised its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023. Its next policy meeting is scheduled to conclude on October 28.

U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a five-month low in October as concerns about persistent inflation continued to weigh on households. The University of Michigan reported Friday that its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 46.3, compared with a final reading of 48.1 in September and 51.7 in August. Despite the latest drop, sentiment remained above the record low of 44.8 recorded in May 2026.

Small-cap stocks underperformed during the week, extending the recent weakness of the Russell 2000 Index amid concerns about persistently high interest rates. By Friday’s close, the Russell 2000 had fallen a cumulative 5.7% over the previous five weeks, while a U.S. large-cap stock index had gained 1.0% over the same period.

A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release Wednesday is expected to provide an important measure of inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this month. The latest CPI report, released in September, showed that annual inflation held at 3.4% in August, unchanged from the previous month and still significantly above the Fed’s 2.0% target.