WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – OCTOBER 4, 2024
The major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated between minor daily gains and losses throughout the week before staging a modest rally on Friday, resulting in slight overall gains. This was enough to push the S&P 500 and the Dow to new record highs, surpassing the levels set the previous week. The NASDAQ finished the week 2.7% below its all-time high from three months ago.
In September, the U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs, far surpassing economists’ expectations of around 140,000 and marking the strongest job growth in six months. Additionally, the job gains reported for July and August were revised upward by a combined 72,000, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2% the prior month.
Friday’s robust jobs report tempered investors’ expectations for aggressive rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, causing the yield on the 2-year Treasury note to spike. The yield surged from 3.70% on Thursday to 3.92% on Friday, up from 3.56% the previous week.
U.S. crude oil prices surged about 9% over the week, reaching nearly $75 per barrel on Friday afternoon due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. This marked the highest price since late August, though it remained below the recent peak of approximately $83 in early July.
Rising oil prices and Middle East tensions buoyed energy stocks, making the energy sector the best performer among the 11 S&P 500 sectors. By Friday afternoon, energy stocks had gained an average of 7% for the week.
The performance of the U.S. stock market in September mirrored that of August, with a sharp drop in the first week followed by a recovery. The S&P 500 ended September at a record high, delivering a total monthly return of 2.1%, its tenth positive month in the last eleven.
As U.S. banks gear up to report third-quarter earnings on Friday, October 11, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to show average earnings-per-share growth of 4.2%, according to FactSet. This would mark the fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth.
Following the recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a Consumer Price Index report due on Thursday will reveal whether inflation continued to cool in September. The latest CPI data showed an annual inflation rate of 2.5% in August, down from 2.9% in July and the lowest since February 2021.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) | Sept. | 46.6 | 46.1 |
| S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI | Sept. | 47.3 | 47.0 |
| ISM manufacturing | Sept. | 47.2% | 47.2% |
| Construction spending | Aug. | -0.1% | -0.5% |
| Job openings | Aug. | 8 million | 7.7 million |
| Auto sales | Sept. | 15.77 million | 15.1 million |
| ADP employment | Sept. | 143,000 | 103,000 |
| Initial jobless claims | Sept. 28 | 225,000 | 219,000 |
| S&P final U.S. services PMI | Sept. | 55.2 | 55.4 |
| ISM services | Sept. | 54.9% | 51.5% |
| Factory orders | Aug. | -0.2% | 4.9% |
| U.S. nonfarm payroll | Sept. | 254,000 | 159,000 |
| U.S. unemployment rate | Sept. | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| U.S. hourly wages | Sept. | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Hourly wages year over year | 4.0% | 3.8% |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 42,352.75 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 18,137.85 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,751.07 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 19.21 |
| S&P GSCI | 557.37 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 102.520 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Dec ’24) | 112-270 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Nov ’24) | 74.38 |
| Natural Gas (Nov ’24) | 2.854 |
| Gold (Dec ’24) | 2,667.8 |
| Silver (Dec ’24) | 32.394 |
| Corn (Dec ’24) | 424-6 |
| Wheat (Dec ’24) | 589-6 |
| Soybean (Nov ’24) | 1037-6 |
| Coffee (Dec ’24) | 257.35 |
| Sugar #11 (Mar ’25) | 23.01 |
| Cocoa (Dec ’24) | 7,069 |
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