Weekly Market Recap – October 1, 2021
Economic statistics reported during the week, compared with prior released data, were as follows: durable goods orders +1.8% vs. +0.5%, core capital goods +0.5% vs. +0.3%, consumer confidence index 109.3 vs. 114.2, personal income +0.2% vs. +1.1%, consumer spending +0.8% vs. -0.1%, construction spending 0.0% vs. +0.3%, consumer sentiment index 72.8 vs. 71.0. Weekly initial jobless claims were 362,000 vs. 351,000. The quarterly GDP revision for Q2 was +6.7% vs. +6.6%. The year-on-year S&P Case-Shiller home price index for July was up 19.7% vs. June’s 18.7%.
The Fed’s plan to slow down its purchase of government-backed bonds helped push the yield on the 10-year Treasury note over 1.50%, hitting as high as 1.55% midweek. Congress averted a shutdown, as the House and Senate passed legislation to fund the government through December 3rd. The bipartisan infrastructure deal negotiations continued into the weekend.
Investors became increasingly concerned about rising energy prices, inflation, and supply chain constraints, which sent stocks lower; September had the sharpest monthly decline since March 2020. All three equities indices that we monitor declined for the week. The greatest percentage drop was the NASDAQ Composite’s 3.2% down-move to 14,566.70, the steepest weekly retreat since last winter (down 4.8% the week ending February 26, 2021). The S&P 500 closed at 4,357.04 (-2.2%), which also tumbled that same February week (-2.4%). The DJIA lost only 1.4%, ending at 34,326.46 Friday. The rout in stocks was accompanied by a soaring CBOE VIX; the volatility marker jumped 19.2% to 21.15 at the close. The U.S Dollar Index shot up to 94.07 with a 0.9% leap, the highest level seen since September 2020. Driven by strength in energies and ags, S&P’s GSCI, which settled at 561.90 (+2.2%), is at a seven-year high.
The metals futures that we track were mostly weaker. Closing prices and percentages were as follows: platinum at $973.60 (-0.3%), palladium at $1,903.70 (2.4%), copper at $4.1885 (-2.3%) and aluminum at $2,857.00 (-2.0%). Only gold and silver showed a bit of strength with gold at $1,758.40 (+0.4%) and silver at $22.536 (+0.5%).
The energy sector rallied across the board. Crude oil futures touched three-year highs, gaining a couple of dollars per barrel, as WTI closed at $75.88 (+2.6%) and Brent hit $79.28 (+2.7%). Percentage-wise, refined products increased even more, with ultra-low sulfur diesel settling at $2.3827 (+5.2%) and RBOB gasoline at $2.2500 per gallon (+5.5%). Natgas prices skyrocketed 8.1%. NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas settled at $5.619 per MMBtu.
Of the nine agricultural contract prices we report, seven advanced, and two retreated. Those in the red were: soybeans at $12.46½ (-3.0%) and live cattle at 125.200 (-2.3%). The gainers were: corn at $5.41½ (+2.8%), wheat at $7.55¼ (+4.4%), coffee at $2.0405 (+5.0%), sugar at 20.06¢ (+0.7%), cocoa at $2,710 (+4.6%), and lean hogs closed at 85.175 (+10.9%). Cotton closed at $1.0453 (+8.9%), after not trading over a dollar per pound since October 2011.
Futures Referenced in Market Recap
|NYMEX||ULSD (Heating Oil)||November|
|LME||Aluminum||3 Mo. Forward|
2021 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading®
|1||Kevin S McCormick||205.6%||United States|
|4||Graeme Adams||118%||New Zealand|
January 1, 2021 – October 14, 2021
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