Weekly Market Recap – November 6, 2020
In the Markets
Data from Johns Hopkins University showed 126,742 new US cases of COVID-19 on Saturday. This marked the fourth day in one week of more than 100,000 new reported cases. Sixteen states have indicated record high COVID-19 hospitalizations, according to the Covid Tracking Project. In the US, more than 9.8 million people have been infected, and 237,113 have died.
National economic statistics for the past week were as follows: Factory orders were up 1.1% for September, an increase from October’s +0.6%. September’s trade deficit was reported at -$63.9 billion which was an improvement over the -$67.0 billion the previous month. Initial jobless claims were 751,000 compared with the 758,000 prior total. The continuing unemployment count is 21.51 million workers.
The effect of the US election for stock market investors was evidenced by a 13.16 point collapse in the so-called fear index; CBOE’s VIX plummeted 34.6% to 24.86, most likely due to traders feeling less anxiety. Across the board, equities indices rebounded with their best weekly showing since early April, when pandemic stimulus became anticipated. By the week’s end, the benchmark DJIA closed at 28,323.40 (+1821.80), racking up a 6.9% rally from the previous Friday. The S&P 500 jumped 7.3% for the weekly gain, ending at 3,509.44 (+239.48). Adding 983.64 points, the NASDAQ Composite had a +9.0% up move to 11,895.23 at Friday’s close. The Russell 2000 booked a 6.8% increase of 8.40 points to its 132.07 final print. In currencies, the US Dollar index fell to 92.23, losing 1.79 (-1.9%).
Metal futures are strengthening, as well. Gold rose by $71.80 (+3.8%) to $1,951.70, silver increased by $2.02, to $25.662 (+8.5%), platinum gained $51.00 (+6.0%) to $899.40 and palladium shot up $282.80 (+12.8%) to $2,500.00 per troy ounce. CME copper advanced to 3.1540, up 10.65¢ (+3.5%). On the LME, aluminum three-month forwards added $53 per ton (+2.9%), closing at 1,901.50 on Friday, the highest in nearly two years.
Prices of crude oil rebounded from the prior week’s sell-off. NYMEX crude oil with December WTI ending Friday’s session at $37.14 by rallying $1.57 (+4.4%), and ICE Brent for January bounced up $1.51 (+4.0%) to settle at $39.45 per barrel. On the other hand, refined products drifted slightly lower: heating oil eased 0.45¢ to close at $1.0813 (-0.4%), while RBOB gasoline softened 0.24¢, settling at $1.0495 (-0.2%). Natural gas staged five consecutive down days during the week, with the end of hurricane season in sight, in addition to a warmer stretch in some forecast models. December natgas lost 48.6¢ (-14.4%) to $2.888 per MMBtu.
In agricultural markets, price direction was mostly to the plus side. Coffee rose 2.55 points (+2.4%) with the December ICE futures ending the week at $1.0695 per pound. Cocoa gained $40 (+1.7%), settling at $2,333 per metric ton. Cotton slipped a bit by 0.30 points (-0.4%), as the December contract closed at 68.62¢ per pound. Sugar had the best performance for the ICE softs, popping up 0.55¢ (+3.8%) to its 14.91¢/lb. close. This was March sugar’s highest Friday settlement in over 8 months. In the Chicago markets, cattle rose 0.350 (+0.3%) to 108.650, while hog futures moved down 0.675 (-1.0%) closing at 64.900¢/lb. at the week’s end. The CBT grains and oilseeds maintained their upward trends. In those products, soybeans fared best, as the January contract rallied 4.3% with a 45¼¢ move to $11.01½ per bushel. Wheat prices revisited the $6 “handle” ending at $6.02 with a 3½¢ gain (+0.6%). Corn increased 8¼¢ (+2.1%) to its $4.06¾ settlement.
World Cup Trading Championships®
In Futures, Stefan Seibert held 1st with a 362.1% net return. Michael O’Keeffe remained in 2nd with a net return of 288.6%. Yuwen Cao remained in 3rd with a net return of 244.6%. Evgeny Kartashov and Fernando C. Piñeiro rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 165.8% and 146.5% respectively.
In the Forex division, Patrick Nill held the top spot with a 248.3% net return. Sergey Shirko moved up to 2nd at 157.7% net return, with Nicholas Ridley in 3rd with a net return of 149.5%. Jan Smolen and Raul Glavan rounded out the top 5 with net returns of 127.2% and 103.9% respectively.
In the futures division of the 2020-2021 Global Cup Trading Championship, Stefan Seibert maintained first with a net return of 160.1%, with Cristian Franchi in 2nd with a 77.3% net return. 3rd place is currently held by Adrian Koemel with a net return of 73.8%. Fernando C. Piñeiro and Jan Smolen finished the week in 4th and 5th with 73.8% and 69.5% net returns respectively.
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