Weekly Market Recap – November 3, 2023

U.S. stock indexes rebounded with their best weekly gains for 2023, reversing their trajectory just one week after the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ slipped into correction territory due to recent declines. The NASDAQ saw a remarkable surge of 6.6%, the S&P 500 gained 5.9%, and the Dow rose by 5.1%.

The bond market experienced significant shifts driven by changes in the U.S. interest-rate outlook. Yields on U.S. Treasuries declined, interrupting a seven-month trend of steadily rising yields. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond retreated to 4.52% by the end of the week, down from the 4.83% level of the previous week. Both 2-year and 10-year yields dropped significantly below their previous approximately 5.00% levels.

Stocks received a boost following the release of the jobs report on Friday, which revealed a slowdown in the labor market. This could potentially influence the U.S. Federal Reserve to be less inclined to raise interest rates in the short term. In October, the economy added 150,000 new jobs, a significant decrease from the previous month and the 12-month average of 258,000. The unemployment rate for October inched up to 3.9%.

The U.S. Federal Reserve chose to maintain interest rates at the highest level since 2001 without ruling out the possibility of considering another rate hike at its mid-December meeting. The central bank has now kept rates steady for two consecutive meetings, marking the longest period without an increase since it began raising rates from nearly zero in March 2022.

In October, U.S. stock indexes experienced their third consecutive monthly decline, with the Dow slipping by 1.4%, the S&P 500 by 2.2%, and the NASDAQ by 2.8%. These results marked the first three-month losing streak for stocks since early 2020, and the S&P 500 closed on October 31, standing 8.6% below its year-to-date peak reached on July 31.

It’s worth noting that without the strong performance of a select group of seven large, technology-focused U.S. companies, the S&P 500’s year-to-date return through October would only be marginally positive. The S&P 500’s total return as of October 31 was 10.69%, including this group of seven companies. However, excluding them, the index’s return was a mere 0.03%, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark for U.S. small-cap stocks, exhibited a nearly 8% surge for the week, outpacing the substantial gains of its large-cap counterparts. This impressive rally brought the Russell 2000 Index into slightly positive territory year-to-date, just one week after it had fallen to its lowest level in nearly three years.

During this week of robust stock market gains, the Cboe Volatility Index, which measures investors’ expectations of short-term market volatility, experienced a sharp 30% decline, reaching its lowest level in a month and a half.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

Treasury releases borrowing estimatesQ4
Employment cost indexQ31.1%1.0%
S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities)Aug1.0%0.8%
Chicago Business Barometer (PMI)Oct44.044.1
Consumer confidenceOct102.6104.3
ADP employmentOct113,00089,000
Treasury quarterly refunding statementQ4
S&P U.S. manufacturing PMIOct50.050.0
U.S. job openingsSep9.6 million9.5 million
ISM manufacturingOct46.7%49.0%
Construction spendingOct0.4%1.0%
Initial jobless claimsOct 28217,000212,000
U.S. productivityQ34.7%3.6%
U.S. unit-labor costsQ3-0.8%3.2%
Factory ordersSep2.8%1.0%
U.S. nonfarm payrollsOct150,000297,000
U.S. unemployment rateOct3.9%3.8%
U.S. hourly wagesOct0.2%0.3%
Hourly wages year over year4.1%4.3%
S&P U.S. services PMIOct50.750.9
ISM servicesOct51.8%53.6%

Closing Prices for the Week

Dow Jones Industrials Average34,061.32
Nasdaq Composite13,478.28
S&P 500 Index4,358.34
CBOE Volatility Index14.91
S&P GSCI577.89
U.S. Dollar Index105.021
10-Year T-Note (Dec ’23)108-115
Crude Oil WTI (Dec ’23)80.51
Natural Gas (Dec ’23)3.515
Gold (Dec ’23)1,999.2
Silver (Dec ’23)23.285
Corn (Dec ’23)477-2
Wheat (Dec ’23)572-4
Soybean (Jan ’24)1351-6
Coffee (Dec ’23)170.90
Sugar #11 (Mar ’24)27.77

Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

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