Weekly Market Recap – November 17, 2023
U.S. stock indexes extended their upward trajectory for the third consecutive week, witnessing total returns exceeding 2% across the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow. The standout performers were smaller stocks, notably illustrated by the Russell 2000 Index, a small-cap benchmark, surging by more than 5%.
In October, U.S. inflation displayed ongoing moderation, with the core rate, excluding volatile food and energy components, experiencing its slowest annual increase since September 2021, standing at 4.0%. This figure, slightly below economists’ projections, mirrored the overall inflation rate of 3.2%, factoring in food and energy.
A robust monthly inflation report released on Tuesday surpassed expectations, catalyzing a stock market rally during an otherwise subdued trading week. On that day, the NASDAQ recorded a 2.4% increase, the S&P 500 gained 1.9%, and the Russell 2000, representing small-cap stocks, surged by 5.4%.
Tuesday also witnessed a substantial drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, marking the most significant single-day decline in approximately eight months. Starting at 4.63% on Monday, the yield closed at 4.44% on Tuesday, triggered by a lower-than-anticipated inflation reading that prompted a shift in the interest-rate outlook.
The fourth consecutive weekly decline in oil prices was influenced by factors such as an increase in U.S. crude inventories. The week saw volatility, with U.S. crude prices reaching nearly $80 per barrel on Tuesday, dipping below $73 on Thursday, and rebounding to nearly $76 on Friday. This volatility followed a recent high of around $89 on October 20.
U.S. retail sales retreated by 0.1% in October compared to the same month a year earlier, signaling a pullback in consumer spending leading up to the holiday shopping season. This decline marked the first in seven months, following a 0.9% increase in September.
China reported positive monthly growth in two key economic indicators, counteracting concerns about the nation’s slower-than-expected recovery after the December 2022 removal of pandemic-related restrictions. Industrial output grew by 4.6% in October year-on-year, and retail sales saw a notable increase of 7.6%, marking the fastest pace in five months.
The Cboe Volatility Index, tracking short-term U.S. stock market volatility expectations, registered its fourth consecutive weekly decline. As of Friday, the VIX was trading approximately 36% below a recent peak on October 20, reflecting a consistent downtrend throughout the year.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| Monthly U.S. federal budget | Oct | -$67B | -$88B |
| NFIB optimism index | Oct | 90.7 | 90.8 |
| Consumer price index | Oct | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Core CPI | Oct | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| CPI year over year | 3.2% | 3.7% | |
| Core CPI year over year | 4.0% | 4.1% | |
| Producer price index | Oct | -0.5% | 0.4% |
| Core PPI | Oct | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| PPI year over year | 1.3% | 2.2% | |
| Core PPI year over year | 2.9% | 3.0% | |
| U.S. retail sales | Oct | -0.1% | 0.9% |
| Retail sales minus autos | Oct | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| Empire State manufacturing survey | Nov | 9.1 | -4.6 |
| Business inventories | Sep | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Initial jobless claims | Nov 11 | 231,000 | 218,000 |
| Import price index | Oct | -0.8% | 0.4% |
| Import price index minus fuel | Oct | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey | Nov | -5.9 | -9.0 |
| Industrial production | Oct | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| Capacity utilization | Oct | 79.5% | 78.9% |
| Home builder confidence index | Nov | 34 | 40 |
| Housing starts | Oct | 1.37 million | 1.35 million |
| Building permits | Oct | 1.49 million | 1.47 million |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 34,947.28 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 14,125.48 |
| S&P 500 Index | 4,514.02 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 13.80 |
| S&P GSCI | 556.74 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 103.917 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Dec ’23) | 108-240 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Jan ’24) | 76.04 |
| Natural Gas (Jan ’24) | 3.131 |
| Gold (Dec ’23) | 1,984.7 |
| Silver (Dec ’23) | 23.852 |
| Corn (Mar ’24) | 485-2 |
| Wheat (Mar ’24) | 575-6 |
| Soybean (Jan ’24) | 1340-2 |
| Coffee (Mar ’24) | 166.65 |
| Sugar #11 (Mar ’24) | 27.18 |
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