Weekly Market Recap – June 16, 2023
One week following its transition into a bull market, the S&P 500 marked its fifth consecutive week of gains, a feat not achieved since November 2021. The three primary U.S. indices reported weekly increases ranging from approximately 1% to 3%. Furthermore, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ reached their peak levels in over a year.
In a break from the previous ten meetings where rates were consistently raised, the Fed decided to maintain its benchmark rate Wednesday. Fed officials indicated that if the economy and inflation do not show signs of further cooling, they might consider increasing interest rates at their upcoming meeting on July 25-26.
The European Central Bank has increased its deposit rate by 0.25%, reaching its highest point in over two decades. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has maintained its key rate at an extremely low level. Chinese policymakers have reduced key medium-term lending rates.
A significant U.S. inflation indicator dropped to 4.0% in May, marking the lowest annual rate in more than two years. However, when excluding typically fluctuating costs such as energy and food, the Consumer Price Index’s Tuesday report showed a sharper increase of 5.3%, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures.
Despite concerns about inflation and a potential recession, U.S. consumer spending increased in May. Retail sales saw a 0.3% rise compared to the previous month, continuing the positive trend from April’s 0.4% month-over-month growth.
The USD reached its lowest point in four weeks against other major currencies, following a busy week of activity for the world’s leading central banks. The USD concluded the week approximately 8% lower than a recent peak set in November 2022.
U.S. corporations increased their share buybacks by about 2% in the first quarter of this year compared to the last quarter of the previous year. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, share buybacks by companies in the S&P 500 rose to nearly $216 billion. Despite the quarterly increase, the figure for the last quarter fell short of the record $281 billion set in the first quarter of 2022.
Major U.S. Economic Reports & Fed Speakers
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| Federal budget | May | -$240B | -$66B |
| NFIB optimism index | May | 89.4 | 89 |
| Consumer price index | May | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Core CPI | May | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| CPI year over year | 4.0% | 4.9% | |
| Core CPI year over year | 5.3% | 5.5% | |
| Producer price index | May | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| Core PPI | May | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| PPI year over year | 1.1% | 2.3% | |
| Core PPI year over year | 2.8% | 3.3% | |
| Initial jobless claims | June 10 | 262,000 | 262,000 |
| U.S. retail sales | May | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Retail sales minus autos | May | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Import price index | May | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| Import price index minus fuel | May | -5.9% | 0.0% |
| Empire State manufacturing survey | June | 6.6 | -31.8 |
| Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey | June | -13.7 | -10.4 |
| Industrial production | May | -0.2% | 0.5% |
| Capacity utilization | May | 79.6% | 79.8% |
| Business inventories | April | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| Consumer sentiment | June | 63.9 | 59.2 |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 34,299.12 |
| S&P 500 Index | 4,409.59 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 13,689.57 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 13.54 |
| S&P GSCI | 557.21 |
| S&P 500 E-Mini (Jun ’23) | 4,453.35 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Sep ’23) | 113-015 |
| U.S. Dollar Index Cash | 102.522 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Jul ’23) | 71.78 |
| Natural Gas (Jul ’23) | 2.632 |
| Gold (Aug ’23) | 1,971.2 |
| Silver (Jul ’23) | 24.126 |
| Corn (Jul ’23) | 640-2 |
| Wheat (Jul ’23) | 688-0 |
| Soybean (Jul ’23) | 1466-4 |
| Coffee (Oct ’23) | 180.75 |
| Sugar #11 (Sep ’23) | 26.09 |
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