WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – FEBRUARY 13, 2026
Major U.S. indexes declined between 1% and 2% as changing sentiment around artificial intelligence and large technology stocks continued to steer overall market direction. For the S&P 500, the drop marked its fourth negative week in the past five, though the prior pullbacks were each less than 1%.
Labor market data came in stronger than expected, easing some concerns about slowing job growth. Employers added 130,000 jobs in January, more than double consensus forecasts and well above December’s 48,000 gain. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%.
Inflation also showed further moderation. The Consumer Price Index rose at a 2.4% annual rate in January, down from 2.7% in December and the lowest reading since May 2025. Economists had anticipated a 2.5% increase.
Overseas, a key Japanese equity index jumped nearly 6% for the week to a record high after election results delivered a supermajority to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party. Investor optimism has been fueled by expectations for expanded fiscal spending, tax cuts, and a more aggressive pro-growth policy agenda.
In fixed income markets, Treasury prices climbed and yields fell after the softer inflation data strengthened expectations for potential rate cuts. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended the week near 4.05%, a year-to-date low and down from roughly 4.20% the previous week.
Earnings season continued to surprise to the upside. With nearly three-quarters of companies having reported, S&P 500 earnings were projected to rise 13.2% year over year, well above the 8.3% growth forecast at the end of December, according to FactSet.
Retail spending disappointed. December sales were essentially flat from the prior month, falling short of economists’ expectations for a 0.4% increase during the peak holiday shopping season.
Looking ahead, Friday’s scheduled GDP release will indicate whether the economy’s recent strong momentum carried into the fourth quarter. The report follows a robust 4.4% annualized growth rate in the third quarter, the fastest pace in two years.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| NFIB optimism index | Jan. | 99.3 | 99.5 |
| Employment cost index | Q4 | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Import price index (delayed report) | Dec. | 0.1% | NA |
| U.S. retail sales (delayed report) | Dec. | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| Retail sales minus autos | Dec. | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Business inventories (delayed report) | Nov. | 0.3% | |
| U.S. employment report | Jan. | 130,000 | 48,000 |
| U.S. unemployment rate | Jan. | 4.3% | 4.4% |
| U.S. hourly wages | Jan. | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Hourly wages year over year | 3.7% | 3.8% | |
| Monthly U.S. federal budget | -$129.0B | ||
| Initial jobless claims | Feb. 7 | 227,000 | 232,000 |
| Existing home sales | Jan. | 3.91 million | 4.27 million |
| Consumer price index | Jan. | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| CPI year over year | 2.4% | 2.7% | |
| Core CPI | Jan. | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Core CPI year over year | 2.5% | 2.6% |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 49,500.93 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,546.67 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,836.17 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 20.60 |
| S&P GSCI | 583.85 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 96.915 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Mar ’26) | 113-055 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Mar ’26) | 60.34 |
| Natural Gas (Mar ’26) | 3.243 |
| Gold (Apr ’26) | 5,046.3 |
| Silver (Mar ’26) | 77.964 |
| Corn (May ’26) | 442-0 |
| Wheat (May ’26) | 548-4 |
| Soybean (May ’26) | 1148-4 |
| Coffee (May ’26) | 298.30 |
| Sugar #11 (May ’26) | 13.49 |
| Cocoa (May ’26) | 3,673 |
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