WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – AUGUST 30, 2024
The Dow gained about 1% over a quiet week, surpassing its mid-July record high. The S&P 500 edged up slightly, remaining just below its July peak, while the NASDAQ fell around 1%.
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure showed a gradual easing of price pressures ahead of the September 17-18 meeting, where a rate cut is expected. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, excluding energy and food, rose 2.6% annually in July, slightly below forecasts.
After a rocky start, the S&P 500 ended August with a 2% gain, marking its ninth positive month in ten. The Dow added nearly 2%, while the NASDAQ closed up nearly 1%. This was a significant turnaround from early August, when the NASDAQ was down 10.7% from its July peak.
The U.S. economy grew faster in Q2 than initially reported, with GDP rising at a 3.0% annual rate, up from 2.8%, driven by increased personal spending.
Eurozone inflation dropped to a three-year low in August, falling to 2.2% from 2.6% in July, ahead of the European Central Bank’s September 12 meeting.
U.S. consumer sentiment improved for the first time in five months, with the University of Michigan’s index rising to 67.9. Inflation expectations for the next year remained at their lowest since December 2020.
Gold futures hit new highs for the fifth straight week, briefly surpassing $2,560 per ounce on Friday before settling at $2,535, up 23% year to date.
Friday’s employment report is expected to reveal August’s job growth, following July’s addition of 114,000 jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate, the highest in nearly three years.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| Durable-goods orders | July | 9.9% | -6.9% |
| Durable-goods minus transportation | July | -0.2% | 0.5% |
| S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) | June | 6.5% | 6.9% |
| Consumer confidence | Aug. | 103.3 | 100.3 |
| Initial jobless claims | Aug. 24 | 231,000 | 233,000 |
| Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods | July | $102.7B | -$96.6B |
| Advanced retail inventories | July | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Advanced wholesale inventories | July | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| GDP (2nd revision) | Q2 | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| Pending home sales | July | -5.5% | 4.8% |
| Personal income (nominal) | July | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Personal spending (nominal) | July | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| PCE index | July | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| PCE (year-over-year) | 2.5% | 2.5% | |
| Core PCE index | July | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Core PCE (year-over-year) | 2.6% | 2.6% | |
| Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) | Aug. | 46.1 | 45.3 |
| Consumer sentiment (final) | Aug. | 67.9% | 67.8% |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 41,563.08 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 17,713.62 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,648.40 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 15.00 |
| S&P GSCI | 536.74 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 101.698 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Dec ’24) | 113-180 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Oct ’24) | 73.55 |
| Natural Gas (Oct ’24) | 2.127 |
| Gold (Dec ’24) | 2,527.6 |
| Silver (Dec ’24) | 29.143 |
| Corn (Dec ’24) | 401-0 |
| Wheat (Dec ’24) | 551-4 |
| Soybean (Nov ’24) | 1000-0 |
| Coffee (Dec ’24) | 244.05 |
| Sugar #11 (Oct ’24) | 19.38 |
| Cocoa (Dec ’24) | 7,671 |
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