WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – AUGUST 16, 2024
After two weeks of heightened market volatility, the major U.S. stock indexes posted their strongest weekly gains of 2024. The NASDAQ jumped over 5%, the S&P 500 gained 4%, and the Dow rose 3%, all buoyed by positive data on inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment.
Consumer price inflation fell below 3.0% for the first time since early 2021, and wholesale prices also came in better than expected, bolstering hopes for an interest-rate cut next month. The Consumer Price Index increased 2.9% year-over-year in July, while the Producer Price Index rose 2.2%.
Concerns about a potential recession eased after U.S. retail sales for July exceeded expectations with a 1.0% month-over-month increase, surpassing the forecasted 0.4%. Additionally, new unemployment claims decreased, further supporting economic optimism.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose for the first time in six months, with a preliminary August reading of 67.8, though still below February’s high of 79.6. Consumers’ inflation expectations for the next year remained at their lowest since December 2020.
Gold futures reached new record highs for the third consecutive week, briefly surpassing $2,500 per ounce on Friday, with the price climbing over 20% year to date.
As the earnings season neared its end, major retail companies reported their results. According to FactSet, analysts expected S&P 500 companies to post a 10.9% increase in second-quarter earnings compared to the previous year. This figure, though slightly down from expectations earlier in the season, still exceeded the 8.9% forecast from July.
Information technology stocks, which had driven the market lower in the previous week, led the rebound with a sector-wide gain of 7.6%. This strong performance helped the NASDAQ outperform the S&P 500 and Dow, which have a lower weighting in tech.
Attention will now shift to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its annual economic policy symposium starting Thursday, August 22. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| Monthly U.S. federal budget | July | $244B | -$221B |
| NFIB optimism index | July | 93.7 | 91.5 |
| Producer price index | July | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Core PPI | July | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| PPI year over year | 2.2% | 2.7% | |
| Core PPI year over year | 3.3% | 3.2% | |
| Consumer price index | July | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| CPI year over year | 2.9% | 3.0% | |
| Core CPI | July | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Core CPI year over year | 3.2% | 3.3% | |
| Initial jobless claims | Aug. 10 | 227,000 | 233,000 |
| Empire State manufacturing survey | Aug. | -4.7 | -6.6 |
| Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey | Aug. | -7 | 13.9 |
| U.S. retail sales | July | 1.0% | -0.2% |
| Retail sales minus autos | July | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Import price index | July | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Import price index minus fuel | July | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Industrial production | July | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| Capacity utilization | July | 77.8% | 78.4% |
| Business inventories | June | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Home builder confidence index | July | 39 | 42 |
| Consumer sentiment (prelim) | Aug. | 67.8 | 66.4 |
| Housing starts | July | 1.24 million | 1.33 million |
| Building permits | July | 1.45 million |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 40,659.76 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 17,631.72 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,554.25 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 14.80 |
| S&P GSCI | 540.08 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 102.463 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Sep ’24) | 113-035 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Oct ’24) | 75.54 |
| Natural Gas (Sep ’24) | 2.123 |
| Gold (Dec ’24) | 2,537.8 |
| Silver (Sep ’24) | 28.849 |
| Corn (Dec ’24) | 392-4 |
| Wheat (Dec ’24) | 552-4 |
| Soybean (Nov ’24) | 957-0 |
| Coffee (Dec ’24) | 244.10 |
| Sugar #11 (Oct ’24) | 18.03 |
| Cocoa (Dec ’24) | 7,087 |
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