Weekly Market Recap – August 11, 2023
The indexes experienced fluctuations, influenced by inflation information and several U.S. banks’ credit rating reductions. Markets made gains at the beginning of the week, but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ experienced declines for the second consecutive week, evident by the market’s close on Friday. Meanwhile, the Dow saw a significant drop on Tuesday but recovered slightly, ending the week on a higher note than the previous week.
In the U.S., the Consumer Price Index measured inflation at 3.2% for July on Thursday, falling slightly short of what the market anticipated. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, increased by 0.2% for the month, mirroring June’s rate. This trend could indicate that the pressure on prices is easing, a circumstance that might prompt the Fed to consider halting interest rate increases.
Moody’s, on Monday, downgraded the credit ratings of 10 small and medium U.S. banks and stated that several larger lenders were under evaluation. This decision by the rating agency underscores the ongoing difficulties in the banking sector, such as higher lending expenses and reduced profits.
In July, China’s exports declined by 14.5% compared to the previous year, marking the largest decrease since February 2020; imports fell by 12.5% during the same period. The slump in imports and exports revealed on Tuesday contributed to China’s declining economic troubles, slipping into deflation for the first time in over two years.
After peaking in July, U.S. consumer sentiment dipped slightly in mid-August but stayed higher compared to the same period last year. The Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from 71.6 in July to 71.2 in August, as per the University of Michigan’s survey data released on Friday. The report noted that consumers observed “few significant changes in the economic situation from the previous month.”
The upcoming report on U.S. retail sales, set to be unveiled on Tuesday, will shed light on whether the mixed results from June’s report carried into July. In June, retail sales grew by 0.2% compared to the previous month, falling short of many economists’ forecasts; nevertheless, the growth figure for the preceding month was revised upwards to 0.5%.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| Consumer credit | June | $17.8B | $9.5B |
| NFIB optimism index | July | 91.9 | 91 |
| U.S. trade balance | June | -$65.5B | -$68.3B |
| U.S. wholesale inventories | June | -0.5% | -0.4% |
| Initial jobless claims | Aug. 5 | 248,000 | 227,000 |
| Consumer price index | July | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Core CPI | July | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| CPI (year-over-year) | 3.2% | 3.0% | |
| Core CPI (year-over-year) | 4.7% | 4.8% | |
| Treasury budget | July | -$211B | |
| Producer price index | July | 0.1% | |
| Core PPI | July | 0.1% | |
| PPI (year-over-year) | 0.1% | ||
| Core PPI (year-over-year) | 2.6% | ||
| Consumer sentiment (prelim) | Aug | 71.6 |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 35,281.40 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 13,644.85 |
| S&P 500 Index | 4,464.05 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 14.84 |
| S&P GSCI | 590.75 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 102.842 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Sep ’23) | 110-060 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Sep ’23) | 83.19 |
| Natural Gas (Sep ’23) | 2.770 |
| Gold (Dec ’23) | 1,946.6 |
| Silver (Sep ’23) | 22.743 |
| Corn (Dec ’23) | 487-2 |
| Wheat (Dec ’23) | 653-6 |
| Soybean (Nov ’23) | 1307-4 |
| Coffee (Dec ’23) | 157.70 |
| Sugar #11 (Oct ’23) | 24.33 |
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