WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – July 2, 2026
Renewed optimism surrounding AI and semiconductor stocks helped lift the major U.S. indexes, with each gaining roughly 2% for the week through Thursday ahead of Friday’s holiday market closure. The Dow reached a new record high, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ remained below the peaks they set on June 2.
The second quarter ended with a powerful rebound for equities. The NASDAQ surged more than 21% over the three-month period, while the S&P 500 gained nearly 15%—the strongest quarterly performance for both indexes since 2020. The Dow advanced 13%, marking its best quarter since 2022. The sharp recovery followed a difficult first quarter, when all three indexes posted their largest quarterly declines in nearly four years.
The labor market showed signs of cooling in June. The economy added 57,000 jobs, roughly half of what economists had expected, ending a three-month streak of stronger-than-forecast payroll gains. Revisions also lowered April and May job growth by a combined 74,000 positions.
Oil prices continued to retreat, extending June’s nearly 20% decline. U.S. crude traded around $68 per barrel on Thursday afternoon, well below the $87-plus level seen at the end of May and close to where prices stood in late February before tensions in the Middle East escalated.
Gold edged higher for the week, though the move did little to reverse its broader decline. The precious metal traded around $4,140 per ounce on Thursday, well below the record above $5,500 reached in late January and down from roughly $4,800 in mid-April.
Treasury prices weakened as inflation concerns and uncertainty over interest rates continued to pressure the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to approximately 4.49% by Thursday afternoon, up from 4.37% the previous week but still below the recent high of 4.66% reached in mid-May.
Attention now turns to earnings season, which begins in mid-July with reports from major U.S. banks. According to FactSet, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to deliver average second-quarter earnings growth of 23.3%. If achieved, it would mark a second consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 20%.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) | April | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) | June | 56.7 | 62.7 |
| Consumer confidence | June | 91.2 | 90.6 |
| Job openings | May | 7.59 | 7.58 million |
| ADP employment | June | 98,000 | 122,000 |
| S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 55.7 | |
| ISM manufacturing | June | 53.3% | 54.0% |
| Construction spending | May | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| U.S. employment report | June | 57,000 | 129,000 |
| U.S. unemployment rate | June | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| U.S. hourly wages | June | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Hourly wages year over year | 3.5% | 3.4% | |
| Initial jobless claims | June 27 | 215,000 | 216,000 |
| Factory orders | May | -1.3% | 5.3% |
| Auto sales | June | 16.5 million | 16.1 million |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 52,900.07 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,832.67 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,483.24 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 15.81 |
| S&P GSCI | 617.11 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 100.857 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Sep ’26) | 109-185 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Aug ’26) | 68.69 |
| Natural Gas (Aug ’26) | 3.196 |
| Gold (Aug ’26) | 4,125.7 |
| Silver (Sep ’26) | 61.064 |
| Corn (Dec ’26) | 441-4 |
| Wheat (Sep ’26) | 599-6 |
| Soybean (Nov ’26) | 1147-6 |
| Coffee (Sep ’26) | 301.20 |
| Sugar #11 (Oct ’26) | 14.85 |
| Cocoa (Sep ’26) | 5,036 |
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