WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – MARCH 13, 2026

Major U.S. stock indexes declined for a third straight week, with the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow each losing roughly 1% to 2% as geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices pressured both equity and bond markets.

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz drove continued volatility in oil markets. U.S. crude futures surged to $119 per barrel on Monday before briefly dropping below $77 the following day. By Friday afternoon, oil was trading near $98, well above the recent low of about $65 recorded on February 27.

After three consecutive weeks of losses, the S&P 500 sat nearly 5% below the record high reached on January 27 and about 3% lower for the year to date. The NASDAQ remained almost 8% below its October 29, 2025 peak and down close to 5% so far this year.

Inflation continued to run above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose at a 3.1% annual rate in January, slightly higher than December’s 3.0% reading. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.4%.

Treasury prices fell for a second week, pushing yields higher as elevated energy costs added to inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week around 4.28%, up from 4.15% the prior week. Just weeks earlier, on February 27, the yield had dropped to 3.96%, its lowest level in more than four months.

Economic growth data also weakened. A revised estimate showed that U.S. GDP expanded at just a 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, down from the earlier 1.4% estimate and sharply below the 4.4% pace recorded in the third quarter.

Market volatility eased slightly but remained elevated. The Cboe Volatility Index closed the week at 27.2, down from 29.5 the week before, though still well above the level below 16 seen as recently as January 23.

Looking ahead, bond market pricing suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to pause its recent easing cycle. Futures markets implied a 99% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the conclusion of its March 18 policy meeting, according to CME FedWatch. The central bank held rates steady at its January meeting after cutting them at the prior three gatherings.