WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – JANUARY 23, 2026

For a second straight week, the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ posted modest declines. The S&P 500 and Dow finished less than 1% below the record highs they reached on January 12, while the NASDAQ remained roughly 2% under its all-time high set nearly three months earlier.

Despite the limited weekly losses, trading was volatile. U.S. stocks slid about 2% on Tuesday before rebounding sharply the next day, with geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland and the potential for new tariffs driving much of the market’s turbulence.

Precious metals continued to surge, pushing further into uncharted territory. Gold was trading near $4,980 per ounce on Friday afternoon, while silver climbed above $100 per ounce for the first time—just weeks after breaking through $80.

Inflation remained somewhat elevated based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation stood at 2.8% in November, still above the Fed’s 2.0% target. October and November data were released simultaneously on Thursday as government agencies worked through delays caused by the recent shutdown.

Economic growth in the U.S. proved slightly stronger than previously reported. Revised data showed third-quarter GDP expanding at a 4.4% annual rate, up from an earlier estimate of 4.3%, accelerating from 3.8% in the second quarter and marking the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023.

China met its official 5.0% growth target for 2025, though momentum slowed late in the year. Fourth-quarter GDP growth eased to 4.5% from 4.8% in the prior quarter, the weakest showing since early 2023.

Earnings expectations edged higher as the second week of reporting wrapped up. Analysts now estimate that S&P 500 earnings rose 8.2% in the fourth quarter, up from an 8.0% projection after the first week of earnings season, according to FactSet.

Bond markets continued to signal a pause in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle ahead of its upcoming meeting. Futures pricing on Friday implied a 97% chance the Fed holds rates steady, following rate cuts at each of its past three meetings. The next policy decision is due Wednesday.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

ReportPeriodActualPrevious
Construction spending (delayed report)Oct.0.5%-0.6%
Pending home salesDec.-9.3%3.3%
Initial jobless claimsJan. 17200,000199,000
GDP (first revision)Q34.4%4.3%
Personal income (delayed report)Nov.0.3%0.1%
Personal spending (delayed report)Nov.0.5%0.5%
PCE index (delayed report)Nov.0.2%0.2%
PCE (year-over-year)2.8%2.7%
Core PCE indexNov.0.2%0.2%
Core PCE (year-over-year)2.8%2.7%
S&P flash U.S. services PMIJan.52.552.5
S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMIJan.51.951.8
Consumer sentiment (final)Jan.56.454.0

Closing Prices for the Week

ContractClose
Dow Jones Industrials Average49,098.71
Nasdaq Composite23,501.24
S&P 500 Index6,915.61
CBOE Volatility Index16.09
S&P GSCI584.11
U.S. Dollar Index97.599
10-Year T-Note (Mar ’26)111-215
Crude Oil WTI (Mar ’26)60.34
Natural Gas (Mar ’26)3.609
Gold (Feb ’26)4,998.0
Silver (Mar ’26)101.333
Corn (Mar ’26)430-4
Wheat (Mar ’26)529-4
Soybean (Mar ’26)1067-6
Coffee (Mar ’26)350.90
Sugar #11 (Mar ’26)14.73
Cocoa (Mar ’26)4,201

Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

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