WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – AUGUST 15, 2025
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ each gained about 1% for the week, marking their second consecutive weekly advance, though momentum slowed compared with the previous week’s stronger results. Both indexes have now posted gains in six of the past eight weeks.
Inflation data offered a mixed picture. The Consumer Price Index showed that July’s inflation rate held steady at 2.7% annually, in line with expectations, although tariffs appeared to accelerate price increases in certain categories. At the wholesale level, producer prices rose 3.3% year over year—well above forecasts and the sharpest increase in five months.
The Dow advanced 1.7% but ended the week 0.2% short of record territory. While the Dow has yet to surpass its all-time high set last December, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have remained above their late 2024 peaks for seven consecutive weeks, pushing new records higher.
Retail sales rose 0.5% in July, matching economists’ forecasts but lagging June’s upwardly revised 0.9% increase. Meanwhile, a separate report showed U.S. consumer sentiment declined for the first time in four months, while inflation expectations edged higher.
Small-cap stocks outperformed their large-cap peers by a wide margin. A small-cap benchmark surged 3.0% and 2.0% on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, and ended the week 3.1% higher compared with a 1.0% gain for large caps.
Bond market trading on Friday continued to signal growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut at its September 17 meeting. Futures prices suggested most investors anticipate the year’s first quarter-point cut next month, with the possibility of additional cuts in October and December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Looking ahead, attention will turn to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the Federal Reserve will host its annual three-day economic policy symposium beginning Thursday, August 21. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a key address on Friday.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| NFIB optimism index | July | 100.3 | 98.6 |
| Consumer price index | July | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| CPI year over year | 2.7% | 2.7% | |
| Core CPI | July | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Core CPI year over year | 3.1% | 2.9% | |
| Monthly U.S. federal budget | July | $291.10 | $243.7B |
| Initial jobless claims | Aug. 9 | 224,000 | 226,000 |
| Producer price index | July | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Core PPI | July | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| PPI year over year | 3.3% | 2.3% | |
| Core PPI year over year | 2.8% | 2.5% | |
| U.S. retail sales | July | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| Retail sales minus autos | July | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Empire State manufacturing survey | Aug. | 11.9 | 5.5 |
| Import price index | July | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| Import price index minus fuel | July | 0.3% | -0.3% |
| Industrial production | July | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| Capacity utilization | July | 77.5% | 77.7% |
| Business inventories | June | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Consumer sentiment (prelim) | Aug. | 57.2% | 61.8% |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 44,946.12 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 21,622.98 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,449.80 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 15.09 |
| S&P GSCI | 534.22 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 97.852 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Sep ’25) | 111-190 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Oct ’25) | 61.98 |
| Natural Gas (Oct ’25) | 3.019 |
| Gold (Dec ’25) | 3,382.6 |
| Silver (Sep ’25) | 37.975 |
| Corn (Dec ’25) | 405-2 |
| Wheat (Dec ’25) | 527-0 |
| Soybean (Nov ’25) | 1042-4 |
| Coffee (Dec ’25) | 334.20 |
| Sugar #11 (Oct ’25) | 16.44 |
| Cocoa (Dec ’25) | 8,278 |
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