WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – JULY 18, 2025
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted weekly gains of 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively, reaching new record highs and rebounding from modest losses the week before. The Dow edged down 0.1%, leaving it 1.5% below its all-time high from last December.
Second-quarter earnings from the first three major U.S. banks topped expectations, driven in part by a sharp increase in investment banking revenue. As of Friday, analysts projected the financial sector’s earnings grew 8.6% year-over-year—surpassing the broader S&P 500’s estimated 5.6% growth, according to FactSet.
Inflation data offered mixed signals. The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 2.7% in June, up from 2.4% in May, suggesting higher tariffs may be filtering through to consumers. However, wholesale prices rose just 2.3% year-over-year—the slowest pace since last September.
U.S. retail sales rebounded more strongly than expected in June, rising 0.6% after a 0.9% drop in May. Since retail sales aren’t inflation-adjusted, part of the increase may reflect price hikes tied to elevated tariffs.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed for a fourth straight week, briefly hitting 5.07% on Tuesday. Although it also reached 5.00% two months ago, it hasn’t held above that level for a sustained period since 2007.
Consumer sentiment edged higher in July compared to the previous month, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading. However, confidence remains well below December’s peak, and inflation expectations declined slightly.
The U.S. dollar strengthened for the third consecutive week against a basket of major currencies. Still, it remains down about 9% for the year, largely due to steep losses in March and April triggered by tariff-related market volatility.
Bond markets on Friday signaled that a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s July 30 meeting is unlikely. However, futures pricing suggested investors still anticipate two quarter-point cuts before year-end, with the first likely in mid-September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| Consumer price index | June | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| CPI year over year | 2.7% | 2.4% | |
| Core CPI | June | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Core CPI year over year | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| Empire State manufacturing survey | July | 5.5 | -16.0 |
| Producer price index | June | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Core PPI | June | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| PPI year over year | 2.3% | 2.7% | |
| Core PPI year over year | 2.5% | 2.8% | |
| Industrial production | June | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Capacity utilization | June | 77.6% | 77.5% |
| Initial jobless claims | July 5 | 221,000 | 228,000 |
| U.S. retail sales | June | 0.6% | -0.9% |
| Retail sales minus autos | June | 0.5% | -0.2% |
| Import price index | June | 0.1% | -0.4% |
| Import price index minus fuel | June | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey | July | 15.9 | -4.0 |
| Business inventories | May | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Home builder confidence index | July | 33 | 32 |
| Housing starts | June | 1.32 million | 1.26 million |
| Building permits | June | 1.40 million | 1.39 million |
| Consumer sentiment (prelim) | July | 61.8 | 60.7 |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 44,342.19 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 20,895.66 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,296.79 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 16.41 |
| S&P GSCI | 551.61 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 98.482 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Sep ’25) | 110-250 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Sep ’25) | 66.05 |
| Natural Gas (Sep ’25) | 3.599 |
| Gold (Aug ’25) | 3,358.3 |
| Silver (Sep ’25) | 38.464 |
| Corn (Dec ’25) | 427-6 |
| Wheat (Sep ’25) | 546-2 |
| Soybean (Nov ’25) | 1035-6 |
| Coffee (Sep ’25) | 303.60 |
| Sugar #11 (Oct ’25) | 16.82 |
| Cocoa (Sep ’25) | 7,800 |
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