WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – JUNE 13, 2025

U.S. stock indexes declined on Friday as rising tensions in the Middle East rattled markets, leading to a down week overall. After two consecutive weeks of gains, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted slight weekly losses, while the Dow dropped more than 1%.

Oil prices spiked more than 7% on Friday, reaching their highest level in four months, after Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear sites. The escalation raised fears of supply disruptions and renewed inflationary pressure. By Friday afternoon, U.S. crude was trading near $73 per barrel, marking a nearly 12% gain for the week.

A fresh report on consumer inflation offered a measure of reassurance. The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.1% in May, less than economists had anticipated. Year-over-year, inflation came in at 2.4%, matching expectations and hovering near April’s four-year low.

Investor appetite for government debt appeared strong during a Thursday auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The auction produced a yield of 4.84%, below the prior day’s closing yield of 4.91%, easing some concerns sparked by the bond’s recent climb above 5.00%.

Gold resumed its upward trajectory, breaking previous records set earlier this spring. On Friday afternoon, it was trading around $3,450 per ounce—up from $3,320 the prior week and significantly higher than the $2,600 level at the start of the year.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese negotiators held two days of talks on tariffs and trade. Both sides announced they had reached consensus on key issues and would seek presidential approval in their respective countries before finalizing the agreement.

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. saw its first improvement in six months, according to preliminary June data from the University of Michigan. The index rose sharply from 52.2 in late May to 60.5, outpacing economists’ expectations. Participants in the survey also showed slightly less concern about inflation.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged when it wraps up its policy meeting on Wednesday. However, the outlook for cuts later this year remains in play. As of Friday, futures markets tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch tool were pricing in expectations of at least one—and—potentially up to three—quarter-point rate reductions before year’s end.