A decisive midterm election outcome, renewed concerns about artificial intelligence, and a stronger-than-expected jobs report contributed to a highly volatile week for U.S. markets. Stocks rallied on Wednesday, sold off sharply on Thursday, and recovered some ground on Friday. For the week, the NASDAQ declined 3.4%, the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, and the Dow lost 0.9%.
Thursday’s 5.5% plunge in the NASDAQ marked the index’s largest single-day decline in 19 months and pushed it into correction territory, with the close more than 10% below its October 6 record high. The sell-off also erased more than $1 trillion in combined market value from the mega-cap stocks known as the Magnificent Seven in a single trading session.
The U.S. labor market rebounded more strongly than expected in October, adding 165,000 jobs versus economists’ consensus forecast and well above the 12-month average of 48,000 monthly job gains. August and September employment figures were also revised upward by a combined 84,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% in September.
For the first time since late 2022, earnings growth expectations for the Magnificent Seven mega-cap stocks fell below forecasts for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500, according to FactSet. Following mixed third-quarter results from several members of the group, analysts projected average earnings growth of 22.6% for the Magnificent Seven, compared with 32.6% for the remaining companies in the index.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined for a fifth consecutive week, extending its retreat from an early October peak above 5.30%. By Friday’s close, it had fallen to 4.86%. Yields on both 2-year and 30-year Treasuries also moved lower, finishing the week at 4.52% and 5.26%, respectively.
U.S. crude prices dropped to approximately $88 per barrel on Wednesday, their lowest level in more than two months, before recovering to around $90.50 by Friday afternoon. Despite the late-week rebound, crude finished down approximately 12% for the week as investors assessed the midterm election results and their potential implications for the conflict in the Middle East.
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of investors’ expectations for near-term stock market volatility, experienced sharp swings throughout the week. After closing the previous week at 19.4, the index fell as low as 16.6 following Tuesday’s midterm election. It then surged to 28.4 on Thursday, its highest reading in more than seven months. Although the VIX retreated to 25.6 by Friday’s close, it remained 32% higher for the week.
Investors will turn their attention to Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report for an indication of whether persistent inflationary pressures continued into October. The latest CPI report showed annual inflation at 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August. A separate Producer Price Index report, which measures wholesale inflation, is scheduled for release Friday.